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Armenia’s Bleak Future Thanks to US Neocons

US neocon efforts to stir up trouble in the Caucasus via Armenia will likely only force other countries in the region closer together and isolate Armenia. Neocon think tanks in Washington like the RAND Corporation and Middle East Media Research Institute have long advocated for stirring up trouble in the South Caucasus as another way to weaken Russia and Iran and potentially cause a rift between the two. Instead the opposite is likely to happen. This is an absolute worst case scenario for Armenia as it has allowed itself to become a proxy battleground between world and regional powers and will almost certainly end disastrously for the country.

To quickly recap recent events: Azerbaijan launched an “anti-terrorism” offensive against the long-contested region of Nagorno Karabakh on September 19. Azerbaijan has been blockading the lone road that leads to the region of Nagorno-Karabakh since December. Ever since the breakup of the USSR, Azerbaijan and Armenia have been locked in a dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave recognized as Azerbaijani territory by the international community but mostly populated by ethnic Armenians.

Azerbaijan taking the region by force comes after months of miscalculations or purposeful maneuvering by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Under Pashinyan’s direction Armenia recently hosted military exercises with the US, invited the EU and Washington into the peace process with Azerbaijan (traditionally handled by Russia), the prime minister’s wife visited Kiev to deliver humanitarian aid, and on Thursday the Armenian parliament moved closer to adopting the Rome Statute, which Moscow calls a “hostile move.”

Was Pashinyan making loud overtures to the West in an ill-fated attempt to coax more support from Russia in the long conflict with Azerbaijan or was he simply maneuvering to blame Russia for the loss of Nagorno Karabakh and move Armenia closer to NATO, the EU, and Washington? Either way, he got in over his head. He has now given away Nagorno Karabakh with nothing to show for it.

It’s possible that Pashinyan was caught up in magical thinking that he had more support from Washington despite the fact the US has no real way to project power into the Caucasus. After all, Secretary of State Antony Blinken was demanding in July that Azerbaijan immediately reopen the Lachin Corridor, which is the sole road that connects Armenia to Nagorno Karabakh. Nancy Pelosi went to Armenia last September and pledged “the strong and ongoing support of the United States.” Members of Congress had also been making noise about more support for Yerevan and stronger opposition to Azerbaijan. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov recently said, “We have information that they [the West] are signaling to the Armenians, ‘Come to us, kick the Russians out of your territory, remove the [Russian] military base and border guards too, the Americans will help to ensure your security.’”

Well, Armenia is still waiting for the US support, and for now Pashinyan is left holding the bag and flailing about. While he blames Russia, he’s also tried to downplay claims of mass casualties and backed the ceasefire brokered by Moscow. Pashinyan will now meet with his Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev October 5, potentially for a wider peace deal. The blaming of Russia for the loss of Nagorno has unleashed widespread anger in Armenia.

Ironically, Pashinyan who came to power via a color revolution with a more nationalist message, now might be deposed via a color revolution by more nationalist forces. Who that might be remains to be seen, but the mood in Armenia – stirred up by Pashinyan – is now one of anger over betrayal and not just by Russia. Pashinyan has managed to alienate Armenia’s two allies in the South Caucasus (Russia and Iran) while emboldening the two hostile countries on opposite sides (Turkiye and Azerbaijan).

Events have spun out of control for the Armenian prime minister, which begs the question: What were his intentions to begin with? If goal was to offload the Nagorno issue and go all in with the EU, NATO, and Washington, he got his wish. Did he not anticipate the domestic backlash?

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While some analysts have declared that 30 years of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is now ending because the latter has taken control of Nagorno Karabakh, there’s also a strong possibility that this is just the beginning of a new awful chapter. Because Armenia has thrown in with the West thereby alienating its two backers in the region (Russia and Iran), its concerns will no longer be given much weight as transportation and trade deals are worked out.

That could result in more lost territory for Armenia or a bypassing of the country altogether. Because the US overplayed its hand, alarming others in the region, it will force Russia, Turkiye, Azerbaijan, and Iran to the table to iron out wrinkles in regional security and bring them closer together. A major sticking point between Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkey ever since the 2020 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been a transportation corridor between Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan exclave wedged between Armenia, Turkiye, and Iran. The problem for Azerbaijan and Turkiye, which also wants the corridor in order to fulfill a long dream to connect Central Asia’s Turkic republics to Turkey proper via Azerbaijan, had been that Russia restrained these ambitions, but the actions of the Pashinyan government have made that position less tenable.

There is also the issue of Iran, however. Tehran has said such a corridor is a red line, as it would mean goods and energy could flow freely between Azerbaijan and Turkiye without having to be rerouted through Iran, thereby eliminating the lucrative fees Tehran charges for such transfers. This is part of the reason Iran is so opposed to such a plan and has beefed up its presence along its border with Armenia.