this post was submitted on 17 Aug 2024
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I admire your optimism and I hope you're correct. At least with the little "city commuters" it probably even makes sense. But lithium battery tech also continues to improve -- so catching up with 2021 is great, but the goalposts keep moving.
There will be an absolute limit coming from physics and chemistry, and lithium is a smaller, lighter ion. In the theoretical limits, it will absolutely be the winner.
But from a practical perspective, if Na-ion becomes light enough and (more importantly) cheap enough, it will probably win the economic game in the longer term.
Plus we can make Na-ion batteries in-situ elsewhere in the solar system without having to first finding concentrations of lithium -- so high tech space industry stuff will likely more towards Na-ion, which will fund some development.
Goalposts keep moving, but perhaps not in a useful way. A 10,000 Wh/kg battery would be amazing, but EVs will get along fine with 160 Wh/kg. Especially if they're cheap and made of abundant materials.