this post was submitted on 02 Oct 2023
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New preamble:

Palestinian resistance groups have launched an operation in and around Gaza to fight the genocidal settler state oppressing them. Thousands of rockets have been launched towards the so-called state of Israel, overwhelming the Iron Dome. Settlers and the troops protecting them are being killed in the settlements surrounding Gaza, with many caught by surprise in the first few hours of the operation.

Palestinians are taking many Israeli settlers and soldiers hostage and bringing them back to Gaza. An Israeli general, Nimrod Aloni, has been confirmed captured. Palestinians are also taking military and civilian equipment back. Drones and MANPADS appear to be in use, and a number of Merkava tanks have been destroyed/disabled and their occupants removed and taken hostage. Palestinian forces appear to be heading in two main directions so far: southeast in the direction of Be'er Sheva, and along the coast in the direction of Ashkelon, but settlements all around Gaza have been assaulted and taken. It is obviously unknown how far they intend to go, or what their intermediate goals are.

Israel is bombing the Gaza Strip with aircraft, destroying buildings. It appears that their intelligence on the location of Palestinian forces outside of Gaza is very poor, and haven't been able to meaningfully strike them. Netanyahu has given a statement declaring that Israel is in a state of war. Iran has issued statements in support of the uprising, and Israel has responded with hostility to those comments. In all, the IDF appears to still be in a shockingly bad state hours after the assault began.


Old preamble on Antarctica:

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Much of the information for this news post, including both the images in the preamble, came from this article at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, which has been circulating in the media lately.

Image has been taken from this article.


Antarctica has had a uniquely bad year.

While the sea ice extent in the last 50 years or so has been very gradually declining, it has done so very slowly on average - by 0.1% per decade. This began to change in 2016:

Even so, this year is different, showing a remarkable decrease in the maximum sea ice extent. It is unconfirmed (I think) but this year may be the first in which the maximum extent fails to reach 17 million square kilometers - and is more than one million square kilometers lower than the previous record low maximum in 1986.

The fall in sea ice has been linked by some researchers to warming in the uppermost ocean layer caused by lateral and upward mixing of warmer water. The ocean is a gigantic heat sink, and has been absorbing much of the excess heat that humanity has generated via the greenhouse effect. But put enough heat into a heat sink and it will eventually fill up.

These changes in sea ice extent is no mere abstract climate worry or scientific curiosity. It is having a direct, catastrophic impact on the Antarctic's ecosystem. Emperor penguin colonies have had trouble breeding, so much so that:

...there is high probability that no chicks had survived last year in four of the five known emperor penguin colonies in the central and eastern Bellingshausen Sea. This was because the sea ice had melted well before chicks would have developed waterproof feathers. ... Today's report says about one-third of the 62 known emperor penguin colonies in Antarctica were affected by partial or total sea ice loss between 2018 and 2022.

And, last year, scientists conducted a study on the two plants that are able to grow near Antarctica, looking at a single Antarctic island for simplicity, and found that the populations of these plants had exploded in the last decade - growing as much in the last decade as they had in the last 50 years - due to rising air temperatures. It was warm enough for the scientists to wear shorts and remove their shirts.


The Country of the Week is Syria! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.


Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.

The weekly update is here!

Links and Stuff


The bulletins site is down.

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists

Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Add to the above list if you can.


Resources For Understanding The War


Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.

Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.

Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.

On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.


Telegram Channels

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

Pro-Russian

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.

https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.

https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.

https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.

https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.

https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.

https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine

Almost every Western media outlet.

https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.

https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


Last week's discussion post.


(page 11) 50 comments
sorted by: hot top controversial new old
[–] TheCaconym@hexbear.net 38 points 1 year ago (3 children)

Remember that grandmother that was captured ? more on her:

“Her name is Yaffa Adar and she is 85!!” Adar wrote of her kidnapped granny. [...] “My grandmother established the kibbutz with her own hands, believed in Zionism, in this country that has abandoned her, a hostage,” Adar wrote

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[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 38 points 1 year ago

revolutionary defeatism is when you want their side to be defeated and for your side to win

[–] ratboy@hexbear.net 38 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Okay I'm drunk and also a bit naive, I've seen a couple of videos/pictures of elderly captured senior settlers with Hamas just having what looks like a grand old time. Are there real and being nice to these old grannies, are they joke images from some other shit? I can't find them again but I think there is one where the lady is holding an AR or something and I'm so confused lol

[–] Zrc@hexbear.net 37 points 1 year ago (5 children)

the fighters have been ordered not to harm the elderly

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[–] GVAGUY3@hexbear.net 38 points 1 year ago (2 children)

I only went to a few meetings for my collage's SJP club, but the conversations I had, they were great. We talked pretty much everything. I remember one saying Hamas is only popular because they fight back and more than a few people aren't fans of the Islamic stuff.

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[–] ProxyTheAwesome@hexbear.net 37 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (7 children)

So everyone is clear here, it seems the scale of this is that they are capturing "tens of vehicles" and have probably killed a couple dozen IOF or maybe even more like a hundred? I see both sides calling this a war, but this will not be a conventional war. Israel's occupation forces are huge, and they have a massive amount of tanks, APCs, jets, etc. If other nations do not step in, Palestinians have no hope for any type of traditional military victory and this will result in massive repression and massacres from the Israelis.

I understand the visceral joy at settlers getting what they deserve, I just hope the Palestinians have a follow-up plan here. Even if they don't, I can't blame them. Lashing out at your captors as they slowly kill your people is completely understandable and justified. I just want to see some actual pressure being sustained here so that Palestinians won't just get steamrolled, I fear for the gaza strip. Why did Israel just let this happen? Surely they must have known, something at this scale would leak.

I hope Iran, Lebanon, Jordan, Hezbollah and Syria are prepared to step in if Israel gets a little too Israel-y

[–] AssortedBiscuits@hexbear.net 36 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Why did Israel just let this happen? Surely they must have known, something at this scale would leak.

It's just typical colonizer arrogance thinking they're untouchable. Whatever got leaked was promptly dismissed with "there's no way the Arabs could pull this off."

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[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 37 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

Palestinian forces have manpads

https://streamable.com/15jcdg

If they've got anything decent it greatly changes the kind of offensive the Israelis can do.

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[–] LargePenis@hexbear.net 37 points 1 year ago

Getting Hamas slogans tattooed on my forehead after this beautiful W for our boys in black

[–] companero@hexbear.net 37 points 1 year ago (8 children)

Cenk Uygur of TYT just announced his 2024 presidential run on Hasan's stream.

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[–] companero@hexbear.net 37 points 1 year ago (1 children)

https://nitter.net/elonmusk/status/1711033701415432245

melon-musk shouted out OSINT twitter, lol.

War Monitor is good, but OSINTdefender straight up posts fake news all the time.

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[–] Alaskaball@hexbear.net 37 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (6 children)

Just putting out a general call to the owners of the following accounts should they still be around:

@bazingabrain@hexbear.net , @bazingabrain2@hexbear.net , @shipwreck@hexbear.net , @ednice@hexbear.net , @granit@hexbear.net ,

If you're still around and still have access to your old accounts, could you do me a solid and DM me? I have a few select comments and/or posts on my saved page from each of you that I really enjoyed and I'd like to hopefully get them undeleted long enough to make a copy for my own future reference.

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[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 37 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Secret Israeli arms shipments aided Azeri takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh

Israeli weapons played a key role in the Azeri military’s recent capture of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Armenian officials have said in recent weeks.

According to flight tracking data and Armenian diplomats, Azeri planes made several flights between an Israeli airbase and Nagorno-Karabakh weeks before Azerbaijan took control of the disputed territory.

Arman Akopian, Armenian ambassador to Israel, told AP on 5 October that “it is a major concern that Israeli weapons have been firing at our people,” adding that he has expressed his concerns to Israeli leaders in the past few weeks.

“I don’t see why Israel should not be in the position to express at least some concern about the fate of people being expelled from their homeland,” Akopian added.

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[–] ZapataCadabra@hexbear.net 36 points 1 year ago (3 children)
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[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 36 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Interesting Rybar analysis.

He's suggesting that the Palestinian's primary objective in Ashkelon is the prison, which could add a lot of fighters to their numbers. He also goes over some of the interesting and sophisticated planning and coordination that went into this operation.

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