this post was submitted on 02 Oct 2023
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New preamble:

Palestinian resistance groups have launched an operation in and around Gaza to fight the genocidal settler state oppressing them. Thousands of rockets have been launched towards the so-called state of Israel, overwhelming the Iron Dome. Settlers and the troops protecting them are being killed in the settlements surrounding Gaza, with many caught by surprise in the first few hours of the operation.

Palestinians are taking many Israeli settlers and soldiers hostage and bringing them back to Gaza. An Israeli general, Nimrod Aloni, has been confirmed captured. Palestinians are also taking military and civilian equipment back. Drones and MANPADS appear to be in use, and a number of Merkava tanks have been destroyed/disabled and their occupants removed and taken hostage. Palestinian forces appear to be heading in two main directions so far: southeast in the direction of Be'er Sheva, and along the coast in the direction of Ashkelon, but settlements all around Gaza have been assaulted and taken. It is obviously unknown how far they intend to go, or what their intermediate goals are.

Israel is bombing the Gaza Strip with aircraft, destroying buildings. It appears that their intelligence on the location of Palestinian forces outside of Gaza is very poor, and haven't been able to meaningfully strike them. Netanyahu has given a statement declaring that Israel is in a state of war. Iran has issued statements in support of the uprising, and Israel has responded with hostility to those comments. In all, the IDF appears to still be in a shockingly bad state hours after the assault began.


Old preamble on Antarctica:

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Much of the information for this news post, including both the images in the preamble, came from this article at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, which has been circulating in the media lately.

Image has been taken from this article.


Antarctica has had a uniquely bad year.

While the sea ice extent in the last 50 years or so has been very gradually declining, it has done so very slowly on average - by 0.1% per decade. This began to change in 2016:

Even so, this year is different, showing a remarkable decrease in the maximum sea ice extent. It is unconfirmed (I think) but this year may be the first in which the maximum extent fails to reach 17 million square kilometers - and is more than one million square kilometers lower than the previous record low maximum in 1986.

The fall in sea ice has been linked by some researchers to warming in the uppermost ocean layer caused by lateral and upward mixing of warmer water. The ocean is a gigantic heat sink, and has been absorbing much of the excess heat that humanity has generated via the greenhouse effect. But put enough heat into a heat sink and it will eventually fill up.

These changes in sea ice extent is no mere abstract climate worry or scientific curiosity. It is having a direct, catastrophic impact on the Antarctic's ecosystem. Emperor penguin colonies have had trouble breeding, so much so that:

...there is high probability that no chicks had survived last year in four of the five known emperor penguin colonies in the central and eastern Bellingshausen Sea. This was because the sea ice had melted well before chicks would have developed waterproof feathers. ... Today's report says about one-third of the 62 known emperor penguin colonies in Antarctica were affected by partial or total sea ice loss between 2018 and 2022.

And, last year, scientists conducted a study on the two plants that are able to grow near Antarctica, looking at a single Antarctic island for simplicity, and found that the populations of these plants had exploded in the last decade - growing as much in the last decade as they had in the last 50 years - due to rising air temperatures. It was warm enough for the scientists to wear shorts and remove their shirts.


The Country of the Week is Syria! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.


Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.

The weekly update is here!

Links and Stuff


The bulletins site is down.

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists

Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Add to the above list if you can.


Resources For Understanding The War


Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.

Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.

Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.

On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.


Telegram Channels

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

Pro-Russian

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.

https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.

https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.

https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.

https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.

https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.

https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine

Almost every Western media outlet.

https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.

https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


Last week's discussion post.


(page 18) 50 comments
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[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 28 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (11 children)

Weekly Update for September 25th to October 1st

one massive effortpost per week and they're only getting bigger and bigger. 8200 words if you're curious

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Global:

The latest Geopolitical Economy Hour, this time on the competing world summits lately.

Shouldn’t the United Kingdom and France relinquish their permanent seats at the United Nations?: The Thirty-Ninth Newsletter, by Vijay Prashad.

Trade between blocs has been declining while trade within blocs has been staying the same or increasing since 2022; in recent years, the two have usually been in lockstep.^BNE^ Households around the world have lost a collective €6.6 trillion in 2022 - the biggest drop since 2008.^EN^ Ukrainian teams are boycotting UEFA competitions after a ban on Russian children competing was lifted (the ban is still present on adult teams).^EN^ According to a report by Human Rights Watch looking at IMF loan programs, the austerity they implement undermines human rights inside those countries.^EN^

Oil prices continue to rise; as of the 29th of September, Brent prices are around $96 per barrel.^EN^ $100 Oil Is Bad For The Economy (And For OPEC+) High oil prices = lower demand = lower oil prices. And as the article notes, it's not just (or even primarily) big economies getting affected by this - developing countries are already facing major challenges and now also have to endure very high oil prices. Not good. The Russian oil cap is not working, admits Janet Yellen.^RT^

De-dollarisation and Internationalisation of Other Currencies: Geopolitics and Implications for Dollar Diplomacy The perilous path from Western domination to de-dollarisation.^MR^


Europe:

As many as 98% of Europeans live in areas with highly damaging fine particulate pollution that exceeds guidelines of the WHO.^BNE^ The Australian Minister for Resources have urged the EU to invest in Australia's critical minerals sector, which would be necessary for any serious effort to decouple (sorry, "de-risk") from China.^Bilaterals^ Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is still attempting the truly Sisphyean task of trying to get Europeans to stop licking American boots for just a few seconds and destroying their own economies.^CGTN^ The EU says that Twitter is the biggest source of disinformation and fake news.^DW^ Biden is to host EU leaders in late October to resolve a dispute over steel tariffs.^Euractiv^ Eurozone inflation dips to 4.3% in September, compared to 5.2% in August.^DW^

No, Europe Isn't Being Swamped by Migrants. The Schengen zone is being steadily assaulted by countries re-introducing internal border checks due to fear of migration.^Euractiv^ Dead and missing migrants in the Mediterranean tripled this summer compared to the same period last year.^AN^

Austria continues to block Romania from entering the Schengen zone over migration fears, and Romania is looking into unconventional means to bypass it.^Euractiv^ Austria is to vote against the EU glyphosate re-approval.^Euractiv^

Plans for Bulgaria’s massive €800 million project to build a battery park to store ‘green’ electricity, included in the country’s recovery plan and one of the world’s largest, have been scrapped; they are instead going to build a much smaller project and provide subsidies for companies that want to build a power storage system.^Euractiv^ Bulgaria's parliament has decided to continue using Russian oil until at least October 2024, abandoning a former intention to ban it by the end of this year.^Euractiv^

Finland has launched round-the-clock border checks to prevent Russian vehicles from entering its territory via cross-border roads from Norway.^Euractiv^

France's former envoy to Niger has returned to Paris and met with the French Foreign Minister, where he was thanked for his great work.^AN^ In response to that Australian minister, France has signed a critical minerals cooperation agreement with Australia and then Canada.^Euractiv^ Macron is offering Corsica more autonomy.^EN^ Hundreds of animal skulls, many from endangered species from Africa, are being seized at a Paris airport.^EN^

The German economy is set to shrink by 0.6% in 2023^EN^, but are optimistic for 2024;^DW^ though things look bleak overall.^PD^ Inflation has fallen to its lowest level^FT^ (4.5%) since the Ukraine war began.^EN^ The government is calling for a summit with industry leaders to try and combat the housing crisis.^EN^ Germany's Chancellor Scholz hinted at tightening controls on the Polish border in the wake of a bribes-for-visas scandal at the Polish foreign ministry; Poland is rather annoyed at him for this.^BNE^ Criminals are literally stripping the copper out of Germany's walls.^DW^ Foreign truck drivers are staging a hunger strike as a last resort measure to draw attention to their exploitation.^Euractiv^ Scholz says that Germany has too many refugees at the moment.^DW^ Over 3000 people died this year due to high temperatures.^DW^

A quarter of Greece's annual farming production has been wiped out by Storm Daniel, and the mud and silt settling will make the region unproductive for at least five more years.^BNE^ Storm Elias has now come along and damaged areas just hit by Storm Daniel.^TS^ Syriza elects Goldman Sachs banker Stefanos Kasselakis as party leader.^WSWS^ Lacking moral, political and representative legitimacy: the election of Kasselakis.

The Hungarian government has threatened the country's banks that unless they show they will increase lending it will impose a higher windfall tax on the sector.^BNE^ The central bank continues to bring interest rates down.^BNE^

An article on how Prime Minister Meloni, who runs an administration made up of three right-wing parties, has largely continued the policies of her liberal predecessors even at the EU-level (which she bitterly criticized while campaigning), with immigration numbers only increasing under her lead,^EN^ although she is notably trying to shift social issues to be more conservative.^DW^ Italy is getting nurses from India rather than improving national working conditions.^Euractiv^ Italy has set up its first center for asylum seekers deemed to have come from "safe" countries.^EN^

The Netherlands is the EU's largest importer of products linked to deforestation (such as soy, palm oil, and cocoa).^Euractiv^

North Macedonia's government will hold the first ever green bond issue in the amount of €10 million on October 3rd.^BNE^ Research estimates that integrating LGBTI people into the economy could potentially contribute approximately $360mn annually to the combined GDP of Serbia and North Macedonia, which are, at least compared to their eastern European neighbours, relatively LGBTQIA+ friendly.^BNE^

Poland has stated that they cannot afford to reject nuclear energy in their green transition,^Euractiv^ and Poland's proposed nuclear power plant project has received the environmental go-ahead.^BNE^ Russian coal is still entering Poland despite being one of the most anti-Russian countries in the EU.^Euractiv^

Portugal has put its national airline, TAP, up for sale, with Germany's Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, British Airways, and Spain's IAG expressing enthusiasm.^EN^ Thousands of Portuguese people are protesting for the right for affordable housing.^EN^

Serbian President Vucic urged the NATO-led peacekeeping mission KFOR to take charge of all security matters in northern Kosovo instead of the local police.^BNE^ The Kosovo government has published two pieces of evidence that Serbia was behind what the EU called a ‘terrorist attack’ in northern Kosovo over the weekend.^Euractiv^ Albania has stated that it does not align with the EU in regards to Serbia and Kosovo.^Euractiv^ The US has warned of Serbian military buildup on Kosovan border.^BNE^

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[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 28 points 1 year ago

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared a state of war on 7 October in response to the massive operation being conducted by Palestinian resistance factions from the Gaza Strip. “Citizens of Israel, we are at war. And we will win,” Netanyahu says in a pre-recorded video released nearly four hours after Operation Al-Aqsa Flood began. “The enemy will pay a price like they have never known before,” he added.

The Israeli army has also confirmed Israel is “in a state of war,” with army spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari saying that troops are “flooding the area” near the Gaza Strip. “We have begun a widespread call-up in all parts of the [armed forces]. The air force is also striking in Gaza,” he added.

As the fighting continues near Gaza, celebrations are being reported in the occupied West Bank. “Here in Ramallah we are seeing people shouting in celebration and in support of the military actions. We’ve seen similar scenes elsewhere in the occupied West Bank,” Al Jazeera’s Nida Ibrahim reports.

[–] tickthetunic@hexbear.net 28 points 1 year ago (5 children)

I'm taking my engineering FE exam in a few days and am praying I pass it in one try

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[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 28 points 1 year ago

The Country of the Week is Syria!

As mentioned in the preamble, feel free to post or recommend any material related to Syria, whether from a thousand years ago or yesterday. You can post it anywhere in the thread, but you can also reply to this comment if you wish.

If you're feeling particularly ambitious and want homework, you could take on any or all of these questions (no reward, but I'll be very proud of you):

  • Who are the main political actors? Are they compradors, nationalists, international socialists, something else?
  • What are the most salient domestic political issues; those issues that repeatedly shape elections over the last 10, 20 years. Every country has its quirks that complicate analysis - for example, Brexit in the UK.
  • What is the country's history? You don't have to go back a thousand years if that's not relevant, and I'm counting "history" as basically anything that has happened over a year ago.
  • What factions exist, historically and currently? If there is an electoral system, what are the major parties and their demographic bases? Are there any minor parties with large amounts of influence? Independence movements? Religious groups?
  • How socially progressive or conservative are they? Is there equality for different ethnic groups, or are some persecuted? Do they have LGBTQIA+ rights? Have they improved over time, or gotten worse?
  • What role do foreign powers play in the country’s politics and economy? Is there a particular country nearby or far away that is nearly inseparable from them, for good or bad reasons? Is their trade dominated by exports/imports to one place? Are they exploited, exploiters, or something in between?
  • If applicable, what is the influence of former colonial relationships on the modern economy and politics?
  • Is the country generally stable? Do you think there will be a coup at some point in the future, and if so, what faction might replace them?

Last week's country was Greece.

Discussions included:

This is our Geopolitics Reading List so far! Please chime in with suggestions!

General Theory:

Canada:

Chile:

  • 1000 Days of Revolution: Chilean Communists on the Lessons of Popular Unity (I cannot personally find an online version).
  • Santiago Boys Podcast, analyzing Allende's government and Cybersyn.

United States:

Venezuela:

[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 28 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Bhadrakumar's latest piece is on Maldivian politics, in the wake of Muizzu's electoral victory.

The West is rather unhappy about the victory of Muizzu, as he is the pro-China candidate compared to the pro-Indian incumbent, and they imply that democracy is in peril. Bhadrakumar pushes back on this:

Both assumptions about Muizzu are deeply flawed, anchored on the US’ so-called Indo-Pacific strategy and its geopolitical ramifications. They ascribe to Maldives a slot in the Indo-Pacific strategy, which it is expected to habitate without questioning, and deny that small country’s freedom of choice in a world in transition.

...

The fact of the matter is that Maldives has a highly literate population which is politically empowered. Only Sri Lanka comes close to it in this respect in the region. The paradox is, these two countries also have something else in common — coping with a massive neighbour like India which taught them the art of navigating a robustly independent foreign policy to balance Indian hegemony.

There have been times when Malé [the capital of the Maldives] and Colombo [the capital of Sri Lanka] wore a deceptive look of submissiveness but in reality, on vital interests they held fast and firm playing for time. In the current situation, quite obviously, they regard China as a balancer. Indians, with their zero-sum mindset, do not understand that these small countries are neither “pro-India” nor “pro-China” but want to be friendly toward both and would strive to take advantage of it to safeguard own interests, primarily in the economic sphere.

It is not only Maldives and Sri Lanka but all countries in the region, big and small, including most recently Pakistan too, which are today under Western pressure to take sides. If the US feels emboldened to try to impose its hegemony over South Asian region, it is primarily because of the tacit support that India, the perennial “swing state”, extends to it.

Bhadrakumar argues that incumbent President Solih never really turned his back on China. That being said, India is deeply involved in the Maldives in terms of trade and infrastructure, so Muizzu almost certainly won't turn his back on India either. Regardless, geopolitics does not overly concern the people of the Maldives (though there are anti-Indian sentiments).

Bhadrakumar also discounts the overall value of Maldives in a geopolitical sense anyway, as India merely has 75 military personnel and two helicopters on the island (which Muizzu has promised to remove, stating he is against any form of foreign military presence on their soil). In talking about India's insensitive move to put troops on the Maldives, he makes a comparison with the US:

This is the sort of strategic overreach that the US usually makes in its hubris — eg., ‘shoving shit down the throat’ of Boris Yeltsin’s Russia, as Bill Clinton once admitted in private to his aide Strobe Talbott during a visit to Moscow in January 1996 (aimed at ensuring Yeltsin won a second term), while also foretelling with great prescience that there was bound to be a backlash at some point.

Clinton was spot on; it came within six months when Vladimir Putin moved to Moscow from St. Petersburg to join the administration of President Yeltsin. The rest is history.

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[–] AssortedBiscuits@hexbear.net 28 points 1 year ago

(Also we hit over 1k comments)

[–] AssortedBiscuits@hexbear.net 28 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)
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