news

https://nitter.net/DemSocialists/status/1710857364604412350

Im in a fever dream, doth my eyes deceive me? is this actually national being based instead of being cowards and leaving it up to the international committee and local chapters to pick up the slack???

A Senior U.S. Defense Official has stated that they believe an Israeli Ground Invasion of the Gaza Strip will likely begin sometime in the next 48-72 Hours.

Also

Israel has formerly requested ammunition from the US, expecting a need for it on the northern border.

Not sure how much ammunition the US has left lmao.

Why the ‘Global South’ isn’t running the IMF, a truly disgusting piece by the Financial Times.

If there’s one song the purported voices of the self-styled “Global South” all like to sing, it’s that overbearing rich countries unjustly dominate international finance in general and the IMF in particular. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil this year denounced the fund for “asphyxiating” economies with its tough lending conditions, somewhat ignoring the IMF rescue that saved his country from sovereign bankruptcy in 2002 during his first presidency. More concretely, the Brics summit in August called for more representation at the fund for low and middle-income countries.

But this is a trickier issue than it looks. The debate over who should run the IMF — which holds its annual meetings in Marrakech next week — exposes deep flaws in the idea that developing countries have a common interest and identity.

Certainly, rich countries are over-represented on the fund’s board. The EU and other advanced European economies have around a third of the “quotas” that determine voting power but less than a quarter of global gross domestic product. The convention that the fund’s managing director is always European is also ridiculously outdated and sometimes farcical. One, the Spaniard Rodrigo de Rato, ended up jailed for embezzlement; another, the Frenchman Dominique Strauss-Kahn, blew up his career in a succession of sex scandals. It’s also fair to argue that the IMF, especially during the 1980s and 1990s under pressure from the US Treasury, imposed excessive coercive deregulation on crisis-hit borrowers and was widely perceived as a debt collector for rich countries and investors.

A review of IMF quotas is currently under way, and it seems fair and geopolitically astute for advanced economies to cede some voting power. But in reality that would open up divisions between emerging markets — and in particular present China with a serious dilemma about its role in the global financial safety net that protects developing countries from crisis. A reshuffling of power in the IMF according to current economic heft would reveal a familiar lopsidedness — the disproportionate role of China in the rise of emerging economies. An admittedly mechanical exercise in updating quotas according to the latest data on GDP, economic openness, variability and currency reserves would increase China’s voting share from 6.4 per cent to 14.1 per cent, while the US’s quota would fall from 17.4 per cent to 14.8 per cent and advanced Europe’s from around 32 per cent to 29 per cent.

The current US administration, unsurprisingly, wants to increase the IMF’s overall lending firepower without changing the current voting weights. India, the second-ranked EM, would rise to just 3.5 per cent of total quota. Some middle-income countries, including Brazil and Mexico, would actually see their share fall.

Take a deep breath, because here it comes...

But with power should come responsibility. In recent years China, a major bilateral lender to developing countries, has prolonged the suffering of debt defaulters such as Sri Lanka and Suriname by refusing to participate in creditor committees backed by the IMF, holding back rescue lending programmes and attracting criticism from the US.

The fund correctly shifted tack around 20 years ago and became much more willing to press sovereign debt restructuring on reluctant private and public creditors. But China disingenuously portrays its loans as assistance from one developing country to another and resists writedowns. This is absurd and unjust. Beijing cannot credibly be a custodian of a multilateral institution while simultaneously undermining it with a vast opaque parallel system of bilateral lending.

Overall, China is an opportunistic multilateralist that participates enthusiastically in institutions it can influence (the Brics and parts of the UN system) and disengages from those it cannot (the G20). There is no guarantee it wants to play a constructive role in the IMF.

Now, it’s true that US criticism of Chinese unilateralism in economic governance looks like rank hypocrisy. America itself acts unilaterally all over the place, imposing financial sanctions on its foes and undermining the WTO by openly defying international trade law. But the IMF performs an invaluable role and is one place where the US generally operates at least in the vicinity of multilateral principles. It would be wise to keep it that way.

Holy fucking shit. Oh my god.

On top of China’s conflicted interests, political rivalries between EMs also hold up a shift of power at the IMF. One reason Europe keeps a lock on the fund’s leadership, for example, is that developing countries have never united around a rival candidate.

As a strategic adversary of China, India is notably suspicious of Chinese influence. Eswar Prasad, professor of trade policy at Cornell University in the US, says: “India in particular has been wary of quota reforms because its share relative to that of China would shrink.” A lack of consensus for change means the current review will probably end in the US getting its way and the voting shares remaining unchanged.

That’s not the best outcome, but it’s the only one that can command consensus. The rich countries have undoubtedly made mistakes, sometimes big ones, in running the IMF. But it’s not just their defence of that historic privilege that holds back reform. The rivalries and conflicting interests among emerging markets play an important part, too.

The only thing that will suck if Palestine is liberated will be Netanyahu setting up a government in exile on Long Island

Hopefully some of the factions that hamas asked to act do, if hezbolla and syria do a few strikes at the border checkpoints, that would force to isrealis to divide their forces and help the al-aqsa offensive

Palestinian resistance reports 600 dead settlers now.

There are claims by Twitter accounts (unsure if true) that the Gazans are only 10km from the West Bank; this would effectively split Israel in two halves.

Drones being fired into Israel from Gaza.

If I say what i want to say about these American politicians my house will get firebombed

Roof knock in Gaza caught live on Al Jazeera: https://streamable.com/49a0e7

EDIT: And the following destruction of the same building: https://streamable.com/w85ymg

What are the implications of Lebanon, Afghanistan, and Syria declaring war? Would that result in the US sending in troops to defend Israel? And also what happens if Israel gets pressed? The fact that they have nuclear weapons makes that situation seem unprecedented and extremely dangerous.

Benjamin Netanyahu is my good friend

Rybar's map suggests that the Palestinians have successfully expanded their zone of control throughout the course of today.

CW: Covered bodies in top right of image.

Edit: Added spoiler warning to the image to Content Warning it.

🔻Eastern direction: ▪️In Ofakim, Palestinian recon groups are destroyed from time to time. There is no Palestinian control over the city. ▪️ Palestinian sources claim that the main forces have reached Highway 232. Previously, recon groups activity was reported in the settlements of Beeri and Reim located near this highway (after the IDF announced a clean-up operation, which, apparently, did not give a sustainable result). ▪️ Neither side has stable control over the section from Kifushima to Ofakim.

🔻South direction: The Palestinians launched an assault on Ami'oz, expanding their zone of control in the south. Fighting continues in Tkuma and Be'eri, where militants managed to take several Israelis hostage.

🔻West Bank: At 18.00, the Palestinians began storming the checkpoint and security posts. The geography of battles will greatly expand in the coming hours.

🔻Lebanese direction: ▪️Hezbollah has so far been marked by loud slogans and sporadic shelling. The Israelis returned fire and deliberately pulled their tanks to the border for show. ▪️ Evacuations are being carried out in border villages in the north.

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20231007-turkey-launches-fresh-strikes-on-syria-in-retaliation-for-ankara-suicide-bombing

America shot down a Turkish drone in Syria with an F16. The Turkish drone was targeting kurdish positions, apparently in retaliation for a PKK attack in Ankara recently. 2 NATO members have turned on each other? Why did America destroy a Turkish drone above Syria? One of their old kurd buds call in and ask desperately, and pentagon felt bad?

This is unprecedented though. I don't think America has ever attacked Turkey in Syria on purpose before. Everything under the heavens is in utter chaos, the situation is excellent.

Extremely good interview from CNN out of all places where a Palestinian tells it like it is.

jesus christ what did I just wake up to

Fighting is occurring in northern Israel/Lebanon, exact location unknown. This is either Hezbollah, or groups within Hezbollah decided to act on their own.

Artillery forces of the IDF are now attacking with artillery fire the area in Lebanon from which shooting was carried out a few minutes ago into Israeli territory.

The IDF is prepared for all scenarios, and will continue to protect the security of the residents of the State of Israel

https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1710874008319561786

This news source suggests Har Dov: https://twitter.com/N12News/status/1710872629039476769

USAF landed at Ben Gurion Airport

EDIT, this just got reported, low potential for US casualties:

Al-Qassam Brigades bombed the Ben Gurion Airport with a missile barrage in response to the continuing crimes and targeting of civilian homes.

White Atlantic Fascist Organization

the nakba is putinist propaganda. not because it didn't happen, but because signal boosting it serves putin. i don't make the rules.

Succdems gonna suck. Danish PM and leader of the succdem party Mette Frederiksen have her address at the opening of parliament today. There she made a bizarre attempt at having her cake and eating it by claiming that the government had more money to spend than ever before but that austerity measures against health- and elder care, education and climate measures are necessary because inflation limits "how much activity we can unleash next year". Apparently her right-wing government's policy of head over heels military buildup does not affect inflation.

She then went on to talk about the public schools that are in bad shape due to austerity, understaffing and being tasked with "including" special needs students without receiving the necessary resources to do so. To nobody's surprise she didn't think the real problem was lack of funding. Rather, it was "too many abstract goals", a nationwide digital communication platform leading to a lack of respect for teachers and too much academic focus that is to blame. The solution is to do more "practical" subjects in schools and introduce "apprenticeships" for the more "practical" students who gets to have their school week cut down to three days allowing them to work for an employer to learn "practical" skills the remaining two.

Financial Times:

Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Israel faced a “long and difficult war”, as its planes struck targets in the Gaza Strip overnight in the wake of an unprecedented multi-pronged attack by Hamas militants that stunned the country.

More than 200 Israelis were killed on Saturday and more than 1,200 were injured after hundreds of Hamas militants on paragliders, motorbikes and boats stormed into the country from Gaza in a surprise attack that inflicted Israel’s worst death toll in decades.

Israeli officials said that Hamas had attacked dozens of communities in southern Israel, and managed to take a “significant” number of Israelis hostage and take them back to Gaza.

Twitter crank attributes the success of the operation to I shit you not, Huawei phones lmao

Israel is already begging for more missiles, but wapo says don't worry this doesn't mean that it is running out.

Wapo: https://archive.ph/HZm4Q

Israel’s request for Iron Dome interceptors — ground-to-air missiles that target incoming rockets — is a precautionary step in anticipation of future bombardments and not an indication that it is running low on a missile defense tool that has been key to shielding Israeli citizens from incoming fire, U.S. officials said.

This comment by u/Alaskaball got me thinking that the US/NATO are fucking lucky that MAD existed, because if not the Red Army would've tore the west a new asshole

BRICS: An Anti-Imperialist Fantasy and Sub-Imperialist Reality? – Patrick Bond

Well, the most important thing is that you've found a way to keep the pristine and pure Marxist anti-imperialist tendency untainted by minor things like "reality" and "praxis" and - gasp - "difficult questions".

I see this a lot from my Trotskyist sources, like the WSWS and Green Left. They can scarcely go a week without a headline popping up on my feed along the lines of "Sure, the United States is imperialist, but BRICS is no better!" and I do wonder if they just don't understand the absurd mismatch between the mountain and the molehill, or if they have some personal problem with China and they're just trying to insert a bunch of terminology to make the argument appear more cerebral. Either way, very frustrating.

Anyway, moving on to Yves's preamble:

Yours truly has voiced some doubts about the BRICS project, and they have not been well received by those who are understandably keen to have a counterweight to the US geopolitical order. The first is that BRICS is being expanded before having much in the way of governance and institutional structures and its members have not much in common geographically or economically. In the much more homogeneous EU, which also built its institutional framework over time, the UK despite its very good deal though the EU was too demanding, and the EU has separately found it difficult to integrate Eastern European members (oh, a UK pet project to dilute France-German influence). If the EU has centrifugal tendencies, how are the inherently more divergent BRICS members going to find common ground?

I've heard this point a lot before (usually from Naked Capitalism) and I'm increasingly thinking it's not really a good comparison. The EU is an organization designed to funnel wealth from the poorer countries to the richer ones - namely Germany, France, and the UK. It may pretend to be a merely political project of unity and blahblahblah, but it's just a microcosm of global imperialism. If - if - China can maintain its focus on genuinely improving the conditions of foreign countries via the BRI and various banks and so on, then I see no particular reason why BRICS would necessarily have to fracture and fall apart. The contradiction between the interests of poorer and richer countries in the EU don't necessarily have to exist in BRICS+. It might anyway if other contradictions arise, but "The EU's dysfunction suggests BRICS will be too" doesn't seem like a strong argument to me.

Second has been the overhyping of de-dollarization. Many of the parties who want to slip the US sanctions noose are taking the critical step of increasing bi-lateral trade and settling through their own currencies rather than the dollar. However, only 3%-5% of all foreign exchange transactions are trade related. The rest are investment related. And contrary to hype, big foreign investors are not moving out of the dollar in a big way. For instance, China foreign exchange authority has been lightening up on Treasuries…to buy higher-yielding Agency securities. Similarly, even though Saudi Arabia’s SAMA has reduced its dollar holdings, its sovereign wealth fund has increased them significantly.

This is the actual point; nonetheless I still believe that this whole thing is going to be a case of "Before the revolution, it appears impossible; after the revolution, it appears inevitable."

"Of course China can't reduce their dollar dependency meaningfully! Of course the dollar can't be dethroned! Anybody who believes that the current situation could possibly be otherwise needs to read more economics books, because I've explained numerous times all these factors that make the transition virtually imposs-- huh. Well, actually, here's the top ten reasons why the dollar was obviously doomed to failure from the get-go. What a weak currency it was in hindsight!"

sharing this quote I just remembered from Gaza: An Inquest Into Its Martyrdom (incredible book):

In 2006, disgusted by years of official corruption and fruitless negotiations, Palestinians voted into office the Islamic movement Hamas, in an election that was widely heralded as “completely honest and fair” (Jimmy Carter). Privately, Senator Hillary Clinton rued that the United States didn’t rig the outcome: “we should have made sure that we did something to determine who was going to win.”

Egyptian pigs are apparently merking Israeli tourists. No idea if it's true. It's just something I'm seeing on Twitter/Telegram.

Edit: It's real: https://nitter.cz/MayadeenEnglish/status/1710953331630248025#m