this post was submitted on 02 Oct 2023
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New preamble:

Palestinian resistance groups have launched an operation in and around Gaza to fight the genocidal settler state oppressing them. Thousands of rockets have been launched towards the so-called state of Israel, overwhelming the Iron Dome. Settlers and the troops protecting them are being killed in the settlements surrounding Gaza, with many caught by surprise in the first few hours of the operation.

Palestinians are taking many Israeli settlers and soldiers hostage and bringing them back to Gaza. An Israeli general, Nimrod Aloni, has been confirmed captured. Palestinians are also taking military and civilian equipment back. Drones and MANPADS appear to be in use, and a number of Merkava tanks have been destroyed/disabled and their occupants removed and taken hostage. Palestinian forces appear to be heading in two main directions so far: southeast in the direction of Be'er Sheva, and along the coast in the direction of Ashkelon, but settlements all around Gaza have been assaulted and taken. It is obviously unknown how far they intend to go, or what their intermediate goals are.

Israel is bombing the Gaza Strip with aircraft, destroying buildings. It appears that their intelligence on the location of Palestinian forces outside of Gaza is very poor, and haven't been able to meaningfully strike them. Netanyahu has given a statement declaring that Israel is in a state of war. Iran has issued statements in support of the uprising, and Israel has responded with hostility to those comments. In all, the IDF appears to still be in a shockingly bad state hours after the assault began.


Old preamble on Antarctica:

expand

Much of the information for this news post, including both the images in the preamble, came from this article at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, which has been circulating in the media lately.

Image has been taken from this article.


Antarctica has had a uniquely bad year.

While the sea ice extent in the last 50 years or so has been very gradually declining, it has done so very slowly on average - by 0.1% per decade. This began to change in 2016:

Even so, this year is different, showing a remarkable decrease in the maximum sea ice extent. It is unconfirmed (I think) but this year may be the first in which the maximum extent fails to reach 17 million square kilometers - and is more than one million square kilometers lower than the previous record low maximum in 1986.

The fall in sea ice has been linked by some researchers to warming in the uppermost ocean layer caused by lateral and upward mixing of warmer water. The ocean is a gigantic heat sink, and has been absorbing much of the excess heat that humanity has generated via the greenhouse effect. But put enough heat into a heat sink and it will eventually fill up.

These changes in sea ice extent is no mere abstract climate worry or scientific curiosity. It is having a direct, catastrophic impact on the Antarctic's ecosystem. Emperor penguin colonies have had trouble breeding, so much so that:

...there is high probability that no chicks had survived last year in four of the five known emperor penguin colonies in the central and eastern Bellingshausen Sea. This was because the sea ice had melted well before chicks would have developed waterproof feathers. ... Today's report says about one-third of the 62 known emperor penguin colonies in Antarctica were affected by partial or total sea ice loss between 2018 and 2022.

And, last year, scientists conducted a study on the two plants that are able to grow near Antarctica, looking at a single Antarctic island for simplicity, and found that the populations of these plants had exploded in the last decade - growing as much in the last decade as they had in the last 50 years - due to rising air temperatures. It was warm enough for the scientists to wear shorts and remove their shirts.


The Country of the Week is Syria! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.


Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.

The weekly update is here!

Links and Stuff


The bulletins site is down.

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists

Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Add to the above list if you can.


Resources For Understanding The War


Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.

Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.

Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.

On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.


Telegram Channels

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

Pro-Russian

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.

https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.

https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.

https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.

https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.

https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.

https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine

Almost every Western media outlet.

https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.

https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


Last week's discussion post.


(page 7) 50 comments
sorted by: hot top controversial new old
[–] ImOnADiet@lemmygrad.ml 45 points 1 year ago

On the resistance telegram, a fighter claimed in a video message that this offensive has been plotted for years

[–] AssortedBiscuits@hexbear.net 45 points 1 year ago (1 children)
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[–] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 45 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

We were like a couple weeks away from my doomsday WW3 scenario of a NK conflict that draws in Iran and Turkey and Israel-Palestine popping off at the same time, but I guess there is still time.

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[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 45 points 1 year ago
[–] Evilphd666@hexbear.net 45 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (7 children)

Glad you can block comms now.

Such a hard spamming hard working NAFO fedposting bonk

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[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 45 points 1 year ago (4 children)
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[–] companero@hexbear.net 44 points 1 year ago (6 children)

https://nitter.net/rybar_force/status/1709250164685185157

Rybar, a reputable but pro-Russian source, estimates that ~500,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed during the war.

I'm assuming it's a translation error or something. 500k total casualties is within the realm of possibility, but deaths seems absurd. Even if it's "irretrievable losses" (killed + not able to return to the battlefield), it's still quite high.

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 43 points 1 year ago

I really really hope that statistic is not killed because if it is then the casualties is 4x that.

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[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 44 points 1 year ago

The World Bank fears "lost decade" for sub-Saharan Africa

The World Bank published its growth forecasts for sub-Saharan Africa on Wednesday, expressing fears of a lost decade for the continent, faced with growing instability. For the current year, growth should reach 2.5%, the institution estimated, compared with 3.6% last year, due in particular to the slowdown in the region's main economies.

"Who's causing this economic downturn?" wonder-who-thats-for

[–] SexMachineStalin@hexbear.net 44 points 1 year ago
[–] emizeko@hexbear.net 44 points 1 year ago (3 children)
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[–] refolde@hexbear.net 44 points 1 year ago

Has Netanyahu said anything about Assad? Just curious.

[–] SteamedHamberder@hexbear.net 44 points 1 year ago

In a classic "God outdoes [State] Terrorism yet again" Earthquake death toll in Afghanistan is at 2400

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 44 points 1 year ago

Video of the attack by Hezbollah on IDF forces at Mar Dov (mount dov)

https://streamable.com/s0icac

[–] ImOnADiet@lemmygrad.ml 44 points 1 year ago (3 children)

The "Bank of israel" declares a state of emergency. The zionist economy is on the brink of collapse. Wealthy individuals have withdrawn and continue to withdraw all their investments, money, and assets from the occupation's banks. The shekel no longer meets investor's interest and its value is plunging.

must be pure propaganda no? but what a thing to put out there tbh

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[–] emizeko@hexbear.net 44 points 1 year ago (9 children)
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[–] thethirdgracchi@hexbear.net 44 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Chairman of the Executive Council of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hashem Safieddine: —

We are in the position we should be in, and the epics being written by the resistance fighters today in Palestine are the beginning of a new phase.

The resistance fighters in Palestine proved that they are capable of liberating all of Palestine, and their operations warmed the hearts of all Arabs and Muslims.

Netanyahu, the zionists, and all “israeli” leaders will not recover from this shock.

The failure of “israeli intelligence” means the success of the Palestinian resistance at various levels and the accumulation of military combat experience.

The entry of the resistance fighters into the settlements that they thought were fortified and protected and the capture of a large number of zionists is a scene of humiliation that indicates the ability of the heroic Palestinians to take revenge for decades of injustice.

These scenes indicate that the time for revenge and reckoning has come.

The Islamic Resistance’s slogan has always been “March, March, March towards Al-Quds,” and we must always repeat this slogan.

We have witnessed and are witnessing the complete and clear ratification of the statement of the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, “The time of defeats has passed and the time of victories has come.”

×Netanyahu thought that with his extremist decisions he could do whatever he wanted in Al-Quds and Al-Aqsa Mosque, but the satisfactory answer came to him from the “Al-Aqsa Flood” that Al-Quds has its protectors and Al-Aqsa has its men and that the resistance can have many surprises.

The battle is not over, and in some results, the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation ended the notion of safe settlements in all of Palestine and is continuing, and what is coming is greater.

This era is the era of armed resistance, blood, martyrdom, glory and pride, not the era of submission and normalization.

The Islamic nation is becoming increasingly convinced, steadfast, solid, and certain that this entity is about to disappear.

This battle is the battle of the entire nation in the face of this enemy, and everyone must engage in the battle to defend Al-Quds and the holy sites.

Netanyahu must know that this battle is not a battle for the people of Gaza and the West Bank only, but the responsibility requires all our people in the Islamic and Arab nation not to be neutral, and we are not neutral in this battle.

The resistance sent a greeting this morning to the Palestinian resistance, and we say that this message must be carefully considered by the Israelis.

Our message to the Americans and the “israelis”: “Your foolishness, O “israelis” and Americans, and your disdain for the sanctities and your transgression of all lines, will lead you to the Al-Aqsa flood, and if you continue in your foolishness, it will lead to the flood of the entire nation, which will drown the entire entity.

Greetings to the heroic resistors, to all the resistance factions in Palestine, and to the families of the wounded and martyrs, and we say to them, “The nation, we are with you, and our hearts, souls, missiles, and rifles are with you, because we are the resistance that originally existed for the sake of Palestine and Al-Aqsa.”

In our dear resistance, we have always longed for these moments in which we clash with this enemy and we are fully prepared and ready when needed.

Full statement from https://t.me/PalestineResist but lots of sites are reporting quotes from this.

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 44 points 1 year ago

Statement by the 🔴 #PFLP

Our fighters in the Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades are still fighting the battle against the occupation alongside the comrades and brothers in the resistance forces, and let the enemy know that escalating its aggression against our people will result in the occupation paying a hefty price.

[–] Melina@hexbear.net 44 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Getting reports that Bulgaria is invading Italy for some reason

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[–] Stylistillusional@hexbear.net 43 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I suspect a some of the other players in the region that are taking the position of intervention if Israel starts a ground offensive in Gaza are doing so because they hope or believe it is unlikely the IOF will want to go into Gaza.

Obviously such a scenario would be terrible for the Palestinians and it is good that it is clear such an act would come at a high cost to the zionists. But realistically, the IOF would suffer heavy casualties regardless of the involvement of anyone other than the Palestinians. Israel has to understand that, one would think.

What's more, the addition 'if Isreal starts a ground offensive into Gaza' allows for Arab nations and groupings to not get involved further if Israel is content to just bomb the shit out of Gaza.

What I'm getting at is that I wouldn't be surprised if these countries, while genuinely sympathetic towards Palestinians, would very much prefer not to get involved directly and will look for excuses not to if things escalate. Ofcourse this is all speculation over things that still feel up in the air.

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[–] Zrc@hexbear.net 43 points 1 year ago (1 children)
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[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 43 points 1 year ago (11 children)

@SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net I managed to make the complete version of this small enough for Hexbear to accept it.

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[–] FuckyWucky@hexbear.net 43 points 1 year ago

Now the Indian government has arrested one of the senior left-wing journalist under terrorism charges.

The current FIR purportedly has its roots in an August report by the New York Times. The Wire had reported how BJP MP Nishikant Dubey had cited the report in the Lok Sabha to claim that Congress leaders and NewsClick had received funds from China to create an “anti-India” atmosphere.

New York Times offices needs a good bomb fedposting

[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 43 points 1 year ago (6 children)

Why a US Recession Is Still Likely — and Coming Soon, from Bloomberg.

When everyone expects a soft landing, brace for impact. That’s the lesson of recent economic history — and it’s an uncomfortable one for the US right now. A summer in which inflation trended lower, jobs remained plentiful and consumers kept spending has bolstered confidence — not least at the Federal Reserve — that the world’s biggest economy will avoid recession.

A last-minute deal to avoid a government shutdown kicks one immediate risk a little further into the future. But a major auto strike, the resumption of student-loan repayments, and a shutdown that may yet come back after the stop-gap spending deal lapses, could easily shave a percentage point off GDP growth in the fourth quarter. Add those shocks to other powerful forces at work on the economy — from dwindling pandemic savings to soaring interest rates and now oil prices too — and the combined impact could be enough to tip the US into a downturn as early as this year.

Here are six reasons why a recession remains Bloomberg Economics’ base case. They range from the wiring of the human brain and the mechanics of monetary policy, to strikes, higher oil prices and a looming credit squeeze — not to mention the end of Taylor Swift’s concert tour.

The bottom line: history, and data, suggest the consensus has gotten a little too complacent — just as it did before every US downturn of the past four decades.

Yeah, I'm a proud observer of the Taylor Swift Economic Index. Shoutout to https://hexbear.net/c/taylorswift.

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