news

Why a US Recession Is Still Likely — and Coming Soon, from Bloomberg.

When everyone expects a soft landing, brace for impact. That’s the lesson of recent economic history — and it’s an uncomfortable one for the US right now. A summer in which inflation trended lower, jobs remained plentiful and consumers kept spending has bolstered confidence — not least at the Federal Reserve — that the world’s biggest economy will avoid recession.

A last-minute deal to avoid a government shutdown kicks one immediate risk a little further into the future. But a major auto strike, the resumption of student-loan repayments, and a shutdown that may yet come back after the stop-gap spending deal lapses, could easily shave a percentage point off GDP growth in the fourth quarter. Add those shocks to other powerful forces at work on the economy — from dwindling pandemic savings to soaring interest rates and now oil prices too — and the combined impact could be enough to tip the US into a downturn as early as this year.

Here are six reasons why a recession remains Bloomberg Economics’ base case. They range from the wiring of the human brain and the mechanics of monetary policy, to strikes, higher oil prices and a looming credit squeeze — not to mention the end of Taylor Swift’s concert tour.

The bottom line: history, and data, suggest the consensus has gotten a little too complacent — just as it did before every US downturn of the past four decades.

Yeah, I'm a proud observer of the Taylor Swift Economic Index. Shoutout to https://hexbear.net/c/taylorswift.

@SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net I managed to make the complete version of this small enough for Hexbear to accept it.

Tucker Carlson reports that the U.S. government prevented him from interviewing Russian President Vladimir Putin. Carlson told the Swiss magazine Die Weltwoche that he had sought to arrange an interview with Putin, but U.S. officials blocked him. “I tried to interview Vladimir Putin, but the U.S. government prevented me from doing so. Think about [the implications],” Carlson told the newspaper on September 24. Worse, according to Carlson, no one in the U.S. news media supported his right as a journalist to report on the Russian leader’s views regarding the Ukraine conflict.

Removing the salt and vinegar taste receptors from every Brit to accelerate the beginning of WWIII

Israel's national rescue service said at least 250 people had been killed and hundreds more were injured in the attack.

At least 232 people in the Gaza Strip had been killed and at least 1,700 injured in Israel’s retaliation, the Palestinian Health Ministry in Gaza said.

Evo Morales will stand for the presidency, Luis Arce expelled

The congress of the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS-IPSP) has voted to present Evo Morales as its candidate for the presidency at the 2025 elections and has also voted to expel current President Luis Arce from the MAS, signifying the party’s formal split with the government.

At the national party congress today in Lauca Ñ, Cochabamba, the plenum voted to approve two resolutions of the political commission, the first of which reads:

1.- Ratify Evo Morales as president of the MAS-IPSP.

2.- Declare Evo Morales Ayma as the sole candidate of the MAS-IPSP for the Bicentennial elections 2025 – 2030.

3.- That in the 2025 elections, no alliance be made with other political parties.

4.- In compliance with the current statutes, all candidates for other positions must be members with at least 10 years of seniority.

5.- Instances of betrayal be sent to the disciplinary committee to consider their expulsion from the political party.

6.- Declare maximum alert and state of emergency to avoid the banning of the MAS-IPSP and protect the candidacy of Evo Morales for the national elections.

The second resolution, with regard to Luis Arce’s expulsion reads as follows:

Ratify the legal and legitimate consensual support for brother Evo Morales, as president of the national leadership of the MAS-IPSP Brother Commander Evo Morales Ayma is confirmed and declared by consensus as the only candidate for the bicentennial While the process of requesting and registering these results within a duly reasonable period, the new board must convene the next congresses; Organic congress to review the statutes, Political congress, Congress to discuss the bicentennial agenda

The corresponding disciplinary and ethics court is instructed to initiate legal actions for expulsion from the MAS-IPSP, against elected authorities who were denounced during the development of this commission, among them deputies, senators, and other authorities for betrayal of the political instrument MAS IPSP, expulsion of the representative, Deysi Choque, expulsion of the councilor Leydi Guzmán Arispe, expulsion of the departmental assembly member Raquel Valencia Aspeti, expulsion of the substitute deputy Samuel Mamani Sánchez, expulsion of the departmental assembly member Jorge Antonio Isnado, expulsion of the national representative of Oruro Mirian Martines, expulsion of the Oruro deputy, Juan José Jauregui, expulsion of other brothers and sisters who betrayed the ideological principles of the MAS-IPSP, expulsion of the deputy Rolando Cuellar, and expulsion of a further 20 names

We urge and demand that the constitutional court express itself as soon as possible regarding the unconstitutional appeals filed against the MAS-IPSP We repudiate any attempt to ban the MAS-IPSP

We repudiate the acts of violence at the CSUTCB congress in the city of El Alto. The corresponding instances and channels must be respected regarding their delegates and election of candidates

The self-expulsion of Luis Arce Catacora and David Choquehuanca for not attending the MAS-IPSP congress is acknowledged The reading of the protocol on depatriarchalization is available for consideration by the plenary session, by the congress.

2nd announcement, I have been randomly kidnapped by a transmasc and taken to the college lgbtq lounge

Is nationalism always going to inherently clash with union projects like the EU?

As the contradictions tighten I'm noticing that it's almost inevitable that as nationalism rises in EU populations they will inevitably turn on the EU itself, resulting in its destruction. Only a union project with internationalism as a core part of its vision that stamps out nationalism within it can survive because nationalist tendencies will always tend towards splitting from a union for "sovereignty". This is economically to the benefit of other large blocks like the US and also, to the benefit of any looters within those countries that seek to profit from their split.

The EU was founded to prevent the USSR from gobbling up more countries, which nationalists could support because the USSR as an internationalist project was a bigger threat to nationalism, but when the USSR ended the EU lost its reason to exist(for these nationalists) and it became a target of nationalist self-destruction itself.

It strikes me that the only way the EU won't succumb to this in the future is by turning the EU itself into a symbol of national identity that nationalists get behind.

It's midnight and I can't get to bed because I can't stop watching into what might be the destruction of Occupied Palestine

Danish brewery corporation Carlsberg is being sued in a Leningrad court by it's Russian subsidiary Baltika Breweries following the corporation's decision to unilaterally "revoke" the contracts granting Baltika the license to produce and market international beer brands like Tuborg, Holsten and Kronenbourg in Russia.

In July Baltika Breweries was put under administrator by the Russian government following Carlsberg's threats to fire employees after a planned sale of the Russian subsidiary failed to materialize due to Carlsberg being unhappy with the price they could get for the Russian brewery group.

Can someone make the "If Russia leaves there will be no war, if Ukraine stops then there'll be no Ukraine" thing but for Palestine? Also keep the same Ukrainian yellow and blue. It'll be the ultimate Liberal mind breaker.

Palestine will be free.

Armenia’s Bleak Future Thanks to US Neocons

US neocon efforts to stir up trouble in the Caucasus via Armenia will likely only force other countries in the region closer together and isolate Armenia. Neocon think tanks in Washington like the RAND Corporation and Middle East Media Research Institute have long advocated for stirring up trouble in the South Caucasus as another way to weaken Russia and Iran and potentially cause a rift between the two. Instead the opposite is likely to happen. This is an absolute worst case scenario for Armenia as it has allowed itself to become a proxy battleground between world and regional powers and will almost certainly end disastrously for the country.

To quickly recap recent events: Azerbaijan launched an “anti-terrorism” offensive against the long-contested region of Nagorno Karabakh on September 19. Azerbaijan has been blockading the lone road that leads to the region of Nagorno-Karabakh since December. Ever since the breakup of the USSR, Azerbaijan and Armenia have been locked in a dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave recognized as Azerbaijani territory by the international community but mostly populated by ethnic Armenians.

Azerbaijan taking the region by force comes after months of miscalculations or purposeful maneuvering by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Under Pashinyan’s direction Armenia recently hosted military exercises with the US, invited the EU and Washington into the peace process with Azerbaijan (traditionally handled by Russia), the prime minister’s wife visited Kiev to deliver humanitarian aid, and on Thursday the Armenian parliament moved closer to adopting the Rome Statute, which Moscow calls a “hostile move.”

Was Pashinyan making loud overtures to the West in an ill-fated attempt to coax more support from Russia in the long conflict with Azerbaijan or was he simply maneuvering to blame Russia for the loss of Nagorno Karabakh and move Armenia closer to NATO, the EU, and Washington? Either way, he got in over his head. He has now given away Nagorno Karabakh with nothing to show for it.

It’s possible that Pashinyan was caught up in magical thinking that he had more support from Washington despite the fact the US has no real way to project power into the Caucasus. After all, Secretary of State Antony Blinken was demanding in July that Azerbaijan immediately reopen the Lachin Corridor, which is the sole road that connects Armenia to Nagorno Karabakh. Nancy Pelosi went to Armenia last September and pledged “the strong and ongoing support of the United States.” Members of Congress had also been making noise about more support for Yerevan and stronger opposition to Azerbaijan. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov recently said, “We have information that they [the West] are signaling to the Armenians, ‘Come to us, kick the Russians out of your territory, remove the [Russian] military base and border guards too, the Americans will help to ensure your security.’”

Well, Armenia is still waiting for the US support, and for now Pashinyan is left holding the bag and flailing about. While he blames Russia, he’s also tried to downplay claims of mass casualties and backed the ceasefire brokered by Moscow. Pashinyan will now meet with his Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev October 5, potentially for a wider peace deal. The blaming of Russia for the loss of Nagorno has unleashed widespread anger in Armenia.

Ironically, Pashinyan who came to power via a color revolution with a more nationalist message, now might be deposed via a color revolution by more nationalist forces. Who that might be remains to be seen, but the mood in Armenia – stirred up by Pashinyan – is now one of anger over betrayal and not just by Russia. Pashinyan has managed to alienate Armenia’s two allies in the South Caucasus (Russia and Iran) while emboldening the two hostile countries on opposite sides (Turkiye and Azerbaijan).

Events have spun out of control for the Armenian prime minister, which begs the question: What were his intentions to begin with? If goal was to offload the Nagorno issue and go all in with the EU, NATO, and Washington, he got his wish. Did he not anticipate the domestic backlash?

...

While some analysts have declared that 30 years of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is now ending because the latter has taken control of Nagorno Karabakh, there’s also a strong possibility that this is just the beginning of a new awful chapter. Because Armenia has thrown in with the West thereby alienating its two backers in the region (Russia and Iran), its concerns will no longer be given much weight as transportation and trade deals are worked out.

That could result in more lost territory for Armenia or a bypassing of the country altogether. Because the US overplayed its hand, alarming others in the region, it will force Russia, Turkiye, Azerbaijan, and Iran to the table to iron out wrinkles in regional security and bring them closer together. A major sticking point between Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkey ever since the 2020 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been a transportation corridor between Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan exclave wedged between Armenia, Turkiye, and Iran. The problem for Azerbaijan and Turkiye, which also wants the corridor in order to fulfill a long dream to connect Central Asia’s Turkic republics to Turkey proper via Azerbaijan, had been that Russia restrained these ambitions, but the actions of the Pashinyan government have made that position less tenable.

There is also the issue of Iran, however. Tehran has said such a corridor is a red line, as it would mean goods and energy could flow freely between Azerbaijan and Turkiye without having to be rerouted through Iran, thereby eliminating the lucrative fees Tehran charges for such transfers. This is part of the reason Iran is so opposed to such a plan and has beefed up its presence along its border with Armenia.

anyone remember the oil price cap? lmfao

oh, the optimistic days of December 2022

The entity's media is admitting its failure to act against the heroic Al-Aqsa Flood. Furthermore, they acknowledge that the tank that was destroyed was none other than the "AI-powered" Merkava 5 tank, the most modern tank in the IOF's arsenal that entered service only weeks ago. As reported by the zionist "Yedioth Ahronoth" newspaper, this "reveals a resounding failure on the Israeli military, intelligence, and political levels."

Zionists are lamenting over their systems collapsing and succumbing to absolute paranoia. The IOF has lost control of the settlements surrounding Gaza and is powerless against the valiant resistance. The resistance is currently controlling eight settlements in the Gaza envelope. The enemy's Channel 13, Haaretz, and many other Hebrew channels claim that there is nothing to protect them and that the resistance has complete control of the situation.

From their cowardly army to their cowardly people hiding in trash cans, an estimated one million settlers are ready to leave the entity.

found at https://t.me/s/PalestineResist

We are so fucked

I guess this is pretty meta but it looks like there's an askchapo thread that's a starting to attract federated NAFOs coming in to provide cover for Ukrainian nazis. I'm kinda tired rn but if other folks want to take a swing:

https://hexbear.net/post/776633?scrollToComments=false

Update on Turkey/US sussy situation @zed_proclaimer@hexbear.net

US's inherent resolve Twitter account published a statement threatening self-defense in case of Turkish intervention in Northeastern Syria, and now deleted it.

I now agree with you that something quite serious is going on between them.

The IOF's bombing of Gaza at the moment is unceasing and barbaric, carrying out several massacres and leading to entire families martyred in a pathetic attempt to restore its broken "prestige" due to historic resistance advances.

The entity’s thirst for blood, punishment, and revenge on the Palestinian people becomes more apparent by the day. The IOF has increased the frequency of its indiscriminate targeting of homes in Gaza with no present resistance activity, leveling homes on residents' heads.

We know, as our readers know, that the people are the resistance and vice versa: it is the relationship between the sword and shield, the heart and arm. Every Palestinian struggles under the occupation. As this historic battle rages on, we know that the tactics of the occupation will evolve. They will continue to target homes regardless of the presence of resistance activity in an attempt to demoralize the Palestinian people, draw blood, and accelerate their genocide.

As this happens, it is our obligation to our principles that dictates we must not fall into the trap of distinguishing between armed resistance fighters and non-combatants, as every Palestinian has a role in the current state of affairs. Every martyr must be mourned, and every zionist strike must be seen for the crime that it is. We will not allow the occupier or Western media to dehumanize us by creating distinctions between a colonized people whose remained existence on their lands is "militant."

Every Palestinian is a civilian even if they hold arms. A settler is an aggressor, a soldier, and an occupier even if they are lounging on our occupied beaches. As the IOF calls up thousands of reserves, it is clear that all settlers are soldiers. There exists a colonizer and the colonized, an oppressed and the oppressor. The people cannot be dissociated from resistance, because we are in a constant state of resistance.

Certainly, an explosive response is coming.

This struggle has been imposed on us. To resist is to survive, and to resist is a right.

from https://t.me/PalestineResist/13782?single

Reminder that the DSA International Committee is very cool and based:

https://nitter.net/dsa_intl_comm