this post was submitted on 24 Feb 2025
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[–] MystikIncarnate@lemmy.ca 57 points 1 day ago (29 children)

Russia is going to run out of troops.

IDK when, but they're basically feeding their population into a meat grinder trying to take Ukraine.

That's not too say the Ukraine isn't taking losses.... I've just, seen some numbers that indicate that Russia is going to run out of people to send to their deaths before Ukraine will.

Putin needs to give this up before he doesn't have a military anymore.

[–] Korhaka@sopuli.xyz 6 points 1 day ago (3 children)

Russians are going to be less willing to die to invade Ukraine than Ukrainians are to defend their homes.

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[–] torrentialgrain@lemm.ee 30 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Russia is running out of troops but their recruitment numbers are way higher than Ukraine’s. I support the Ukrainian armed forces unconditionally and have donated to them multiple times so believe me that it brings me no pleasure to say this, but there is no way Russia runs out of soldiers before Ukraine does.

[–] einkorn@feddit.org 22 points 1 day ago (15 children)
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[–] Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz 35 points 1 day ago (9 children)

To be clear: The Russia's losses are increasing month after month, but their recruitment capacity is not. They are recruiting about 1000 soldiers every day, maybe a bit less. And the number seems to be going down, not growing. They are losing 1300 to 1800 each day now meaning a net loss of something like 400 to 900 soldiers per day!

They won't run out of population anytime soon, but they will run out of soldiers.

[–] AES_Enjoyer@reddthat.com 9 points 1 day ago (3 children)

They are losing 1300 to 1800 each day

Russia is losing up to half a million men per year? What's your source for this? It seems outlandish

[–] Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz 9 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (2 children)

Ukraine publishes daily statistics about Russia's manpower losses. One would think those numbers are simply propaganda and any army would "of course" exaggerate such numbers.

But, firstly: The numbers reported by Ukraine rise and fall hand-in-hand with the numbers given by Oryx. There is something of an almost fixed multiplier between Oryx numbers and official data provided by Ukraine. And the Oryx numbers are always published later than Ukraine publishes its own, so Ukraine cannot be just copying Oryx's numbers and multiplying them. And it's logical that Oryx shows only a fraction of the real number, because for most Russian combat losses there is no photo proof, and Oryx only counts what has photo proof.

So, at least the Ukrainian numbers rise and drop without fake data added. Then the question is whether the scale of the numbers is correct, or if Ukraine intentionally inflates them with some static multiplier. Since there is data about the Russia's recruitment capacity and the whole size of the Russia's army, it's visible that by recruiting about 1000 per day they can keep their army's size constant. That shows that the losses must be around the same ballpark. And it coincides with the numbers published by Ukraine.

But yes, now that Russians mostly do not have tanks to use in their attacks, they are really using pure meat wave attacks, and that costs a LOT of men. There's a reason Putin is trying to convince Trump to force Ukraine into an armistice. Losing that many soldiers – indeed almost half a million per year! – is extremely unsustainable, no matter what image Putin is trying to give.

And remember: these numbers are about irrecoverable losses, of which only a fraction are deaths. The number of deaths is far lower.

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[–] LandedGentry@lemmy.zip 244 points 2 days ago (59 children)

I really hope Europe is going to give them the support they need to see this through.

[–] eporetsky@lemmy.world 91 points 2 days ago (16 children)

I hope trump is not going to start sending support to Putin

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[–] Gammelfisch@lemmy.world 79 points 1 day ago (1 children)

We Europeans should have never hesitated to supply Ukraine. Let's make up for the fuck-up and give them everything we have and the AmeriKan Nazis can piss and moan on the sidelines.

[–] MyNameIsIgglePiggle@sh.itjust.works 26 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

What if the US stepping back is exactly what Europe needs to become a true superpower?"

It hit me recently that Europe has largely relied on the US to take the lead on global issues, often playing it safe and deferring to American influence. But what if the US pulling back its support is actually a blessing in disguise?

Without the US as the default leader, NATO and the EU could finally step up, stand on their own, and evolve into a unified superpower. This shift could bring much-needed stability to the region—and potentially the world—especially as the US faces its own internal challenges.

Sure, it’s not guaranteed to play out this way, but isn’t this a more appealing vision than the current status quo or the rise of authoritarian powers dominating the global stage?

[–] Tuuktuuk@sopuli.xyz 18 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (2 children)

USA has also quite sternly asked Europe to not become a superpower. And this is something that was openly spoken aloud in 1980's and 1990's. Their offer has been "we'll handle this superpower stuff on your behalf, you guys keep to yourself." That has kept USA the clear leading superpower, which has been extremely useful for the American economy, and we have been able to concentrate on other stuff, which has been good for our economy.

It's been an agreement between USA and Europe that Europe will not start competing of power with USA. We have more population and a bigger economy than USA, so I'd guess that now that the agreement has ended, we'll have to become what we would already have been for decades if we hadn't been asked not to.

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[–] PortoPeople@lemm.ee 84 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Step up, EU. It's on you now that the US are traitors.

[–] mechoman444@lemmy.world 50 points 1 day ago (13 children)

As an American I'd like to apologize for the shit show my country currently is.

I've never felt shame like this.

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[–] partial_accumen@lemmy.world 91 points 2 days ago (30 children)

No exaggeration, Russia is issuing donkeys and mules (yes actual pack animals) to soldiers for transporting supplies because vehicles are in short supply.

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[–] pennomi@lemmy.world 107 points 2 days ago (8 children)

Defense Minister Ruslan Umerov said 96% of all drones fielded by the Ukrainian military are domestically manufactured. Syrsky said during 2024, Ukrainian drone producers delivered more than 1.3 million robot aircraft to the armed forces. About 85% of all Russian casualties and vehicle kills on the battlefield are scored by Ukrainian drones, Malyuk said.

Very interesting to see the statistics. I always assumed drones were doing the most damage but it’s nice to have a number confirm this.

[–] nova_ad_vitum@lemmy.ca 67 points 2 days ago (20 children)

This war is a sample of what all major conflicts between industrialized nations are going to look like from now on. Even more utterly horrific for the average soldier. Death from above at any moment without warning, fuzzy front lines, the whole thing.

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[–] MolecularCactus1324@lemmy.world 3 points 1 day ago (1 children)

That’s good to know because it indicates they are less reliant on the US than one might assume. They’re doing 85% of the killing with their own tools.

[–] pennomi@lemmy.world 3 points 1 day ago

True, but air defense is also critical. If Russia gets total air supremacy that changes a lot.

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[–] cyd@lemmy.world 39 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (17 children)

I honestly don't know how to read the situation. Ukraine's fought terrifically, but their status seems far less sustainable even if you discount the Trump stuff. I don't put a lot of stock in these claims that Russia is on the verge of imploding due to the stress of the war, any day now. It is possible, but mostly seems like wishful thinking.

External aid changes the situation a bit, but not ultimately that much because no Western power seems willing to directly intervene with troops. Barring that, the overall situation between the two countries feels a bit like what Shelby Foote said about the US Civil War: "the North fought that war with one hand behind its back... If there had been more Southern victories, and a lot more, the North simply would have brought that other hand out from behind its back."

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[–] PugJesus@lemmy.world 100 points 2 days ago (1 children)

May they prevail. Slava Ukraini.

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[–] Bustedknuckles@lemmy.world 84 points 2 days ago (3 children)

I believe it too. What a shit time for American materiel support to collapse

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