These polls are just his approval ratings, right (sorry, can't access the article), not a measure who is willing to vote for him in 2024? Yeah, people don't approve of you backing Israel when it's indiscriminately killing civilians and committing war crimes. Surprise, surprise. Doesn't mean they're going to vote for Trump over you, Joe, don't worry.
As always:
The issue isn't people voting for trump, it's them not voting.
Because for some people, voting can take hours.
This is intentional because Republicans know depressed turnout is how they win. Unfortunately Dem party leadership just refuses to acknowledge that.
It's why trump beat Hillary, and can 100% happen again in 2024. The most important job of any candidate is getting votes. And just saying: "What are you going to do, vote Republican instead?" Isn't going to motivate enough voters to get to the polls.
The party is obsessed with stealing voters from Republicans, because that matches their preconceived notion that the democratic party needs to move to the right and gives them an excuse to do so.
Despite the fact that it's easier to get a non voter to vote than convince a Republican to start voting D.
And Biden - who has won elections for the past 40+ years - really understands this.
Which is why he is frustrated.
We have to be honest. Things really aren't looking good.
Let's not fool ourselves. Trump has a large, dedicated base willing to vote for him.
If turnout is high, his chances of winning are low. But with a low turnout, his chances are high.
A potential Biden voter staying home, because of low motivation to go stand in a line for hours - that's the Republican winning ticket.
Which is why the conflict in Israel and stalemate in Ukraine are good for Trump, it de-energizes the Democrat base.
It's not just turnout, turnout was much higher in 2020 than 2016 but even with that Trump gained 12M votes between the two. Millions of people who sat out the 2016 election looked at those four years and decided Trump deserved another go. But Biden got nearly 19M more than Hillary did, and more importantly, got those margins in the correct states to make an EC win out of it.
It’s not just turnout, turnout was much higher in 2020 than 2016
This is another area Hillary's campaign fucked up, despite being very simple if looking at the larger picture.
The population increased like 16 million in that time.
So "turnout" when viewed as a total number makes it look like it constantly gets better. Hillary ignored that and chased beating Obama's total votes out of pride rather than focusing on the electoral college to win.
So its best to use percentages, and 2016 was the lowest it's been in 20 years, ironically enough, that was the other Clinton.
https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/11/politics/popular-vote-turnout-2016/index.html
In 2020 it was like 2/3s of eligible voters who voted. But it's a lot easier to motivate people to vote for someone solely because "they're not a Republican" when the Republican is already in office. Especially when the challenger is telling everyone they're going to fix all the shit the Republican is breaking.
But four years later after that didn't happen....
And I don't know how anyone can't forsee a decline in turnout.
And just to be safe I'll say it again:
Republicans only win when turnout is low, so we need to focus on increasing turnout
And poll numbers show Biden most likely won't be able to match 2020's numbers. Republicans tho...
Not many voted for trump in 2020 but won't in 2024.
Well, the ones who died due to not following covid protocols. ;) And the ones in jail for 1/6.
The game isn't "get people to approve of my performance." The game isn't even "get most people to vote for me." The game is "get a marginal victory in a few states, because land matters more than people."
Perfect explanation ☝️
The party is obsessed with stealing voters from Republicans
What? Democrats don't need to steal votes. Democrat voters outnumber Republicans but a fairly decent margin. It IS as you say: they just need people to vote. Which is why Democrats generally back voting by mail and early voting that Republicans try to stop.
That was what givesomefucks was saying. Team Blue does not need any Team Red voters. They need Team Yellow and Team Green and Team No-Colour-Because-They-Stay-Home votes. But they keep reaching out to Team Red voters by shying to the Right in the stupid and hopeless quest to draw some of those voters over to their side, ignoring a much larger slice of people who don't want our government slipping to the right. Of course, I have my theory -- Team Green especially is horrible about staying home if they don't get EXACTLY what they want. Team Red SEEMS to be the more reliable answer than Team Green, but they've already bought the propaganda that we're all baby-eating, baby-f**king Satan worshippers over here on the Left.
I think your confusing me saying what the party has spent decades doing, and me saying it's a good idea.
Clearly it's not.
Because even if it gets a few in office, they're unwilling to actually fix anything because it may piss off the hypothetical former Republicans that never vote D anyways.
A cynic would say party leadership is smart enough to understand this, and it's all a lie to justify keeping donors happy. Because the party wants those donations and is banking on "what are you going to do, vote Republican?" To get just enough votes to win the election.
In reality it just makes the office cycle between the two parties. And Republicans break as much as they can, and Dems don't fix it fast enough before Republicans get it back.
Resulting in a slow but consistent destruction of America, which further depresses turnout and keeps the cycle going on a long timeline.
Which could all be fixed by electing progressives willing to try as hard as they can, even if they fail
If we do that, then the wealthy donors stop donating. And current party leadership gets replaced.
Good luck convincing them to do that.
Depends on the poll.
There are multiple polls showing him down vs. Trump in multiple key states that he HAS to win to get elected.
Arizona:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Georgia:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/georgia/
Michigan:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Nevada:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
North Carolina:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
Pennsylvania:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Wisconsin:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Seriously though. Can we stop pretending like being 81 isn't a liability? And a reasonable concern?
If Democrats had brains, they'd run a buff, tall white guy with progressive policies and a hot wife. Fascists follow strength and heteronormative values, so? Just use it against them. Trump only looks strong next to an 81 year old dude with a speech impediment. All love to Biden, but hang 'em up, bro, damn.
Guy can't let go of the game even though the game let go of him.
To be fair, that one also has speech difficulty.
I'd like a refund on my government, it seems like it's just a bunch of out of date, moldy, spoiled, cheese of some kind.
Let Hunter run. We already know hes drowning in poon and has massive schmeat. Trump couldn't possibly compete.
You’re a poet, and you didn’t realize.
Newsom?
Jeff Jackson of North Carolina would be my personal pick. He's just too new. If he were 4-8 years further into his career I think it would be a slam dunk.
I feel like, in this highly politicized environment amplified by misinformation, echo chambers, and the horrors of social media, no incumbent president will ever again crack 50% approval
You know what it would take? An actual thought leader. Someone who can make a persuasive argument and communicate a coherent message. Someone who can actually convince supporters to follow, who can challenge the bullshit and elevate the actual dissenting opinion.
But I've just rewatched The Newsroom, so I'm feeling particularly spicy about the quality of journalism right now. We let our politicians feed the echo chambers because consumers retreat to safety when challenged. Nobody argues, nobody calls out bullshit, nobody is challenged at all. Your identity is your team, and your actions are good or bad because of who you are. It is entirely upside down.
This is me caring about horse-race corporate news articles.
Did you hear about her emails?
Washington Post so badly wanted to get into the "Dems in disarray" game that they hired an author away from Politico.
Buttery males!
Well, to be fair he did steal the presidency from Bernie Sanders and doom us all to pre-fascist neoliberal hell
Condoning genocide and telling us we are doing great when we can see we are not might be impacting those numbers. He needs to drop out. And Dems refusing to demand their party offer up someone else are complicit when trump gets reelected
I don't particularly like him either, but if he doesn't run again, it becomes significantly easier for Trump to get reelected. Pick your poison. I'd rather Biden than Trump, so I want him to stay running and I'll vote for him again.
Maybe you should vote for a write-in candidate if you feel that strongly about it? Just know that whatever you write, it will spell "Trump."
I don’t think Biden should drop out.
I also don’t think Biden should be the automatic nominee. There should be a full primary election, and whoever wins that (maybe Biden, maybe someone else) goes to the general.
Biden has done a bunch of good stuff, but he’s also woefully out of touch on an absolute FUCKTON of issues that non-boomer voters give a whole hell of a lot of shits about. I am so fucking done with gerontocracy.
but if he doesn’t run again, it becomes significantly easier for Trump to get reelected.
Biden disagrees...
He just said a week or so ago that "at least 50 other Dems" could beat trump.
The polls disagree too, they show that Biden doesn't have a very good chance against trump.
We ignored those polls in 2016 to run an unpopular candidate, and trump was elected.
The polls in 2016 showed Clinton beating Trump.
For popular vote nationwide...
State polls for battleground states was very concerning with a lot Dems took for granted had results for Clinton but margain of error showed a trump win possible.
That's where Republicans focused effort, while Clinton was going to states like Cali on her preemptive victory lap
The thing was, pointing that out before the election got shouted down by moderates and you would be accused of wanting her to lose.
Pretty much what's happening now with 2024...
Polls don't mean shit, they're wrong constantly and shift on a dime. Just write some good fucking policy and focus on the people
Polls are actually pretty good. It's just that people only really notice when they are "wrong." At this time, they probably don't mean much when it comes to the outcome of the election because we are so far out, but that doesn't take away their value when it comes to taking the temperature of the American people.
It is worth pointing out that a number of state democratic parties have declared the only primary candidate will be Biden. Others are denying some combination of candidates from being on the primary ballot opposing Biden.
So that kinda sucks, and something people should be aware of: attempts are being made to force Biden as the candidate by the party.
Well, Zionism is the new Nazism.
Maybe he should denounce Zionism.
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