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this post was submitted on 22 Oct 2024
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The latest report that I saw was Russian attrition was nearing a collapsing rate in which the expected experience and levels of fatigue of renenforcments were to mean the expected casualty rates would climb exponentially on their side.
That's interesting because I remember reading that in 2022. Meanwhile Zelensky is publicly threatening to deploy "3 secret weapons" which he apparently discussed behind closed doors with western leaders who are responding negatively to this pronouncement (indicating an unwillingness to escalate)
Let's be for real, Russia could tac nuke a non NATO Eastern European country in response to whatever dual use weapons zelensky is talking about with a nuclear payload, and their chief worry would probably be the global backlash, not the threat of strategic nukes
Put down the washing machine memes and listen to the quieter admissions of Ukrainian soldiers. That's how I saw them throwing civilian bodies into a pit, gloating, before editing 30 min later to claim they took it off a Russian phone (despite visible armbands). Morale is breaking down, conscription is failing versus the Russian mercenary and volunteer partial mobilization. There is no political change coming in Moscow.
@griefstricken @fruitycoder I don't think political change is even desirable, contrasted with Dmitry Medvedev and especially with Boris Yeltsin and Mikhail Gorbachev before him and pretty much the farther back you go the worse it gets, Konstantin Chernenko, Yuri Andropov, I mean farther back you go the worse they get. I think Putin really has been the most willing to work with us if we had only returned the same in kind, as any Russian leader in history. As for political change, though I do not think it will come as a result the political will of the people, sure he has his detractors but think most people are not unhappy with him, where it's likely to come is simply the fact that he is 72 years old, we don't know the state of his health or how long it will hold up.
It's a horrifying prospect unless you just want to maintain access to natural resource and monopoly rents via international corps, offered up by whatever Navalny type they would want to take power.
Medvedev... yeah no way but it would be funny.
@griefstricken Prior to nuclear weapons perhaps but that kind of takes the humor out of it.
Eh, nuclear weapons are a paper tiger. Building them is profitable, not using them in a big flurry of apocalypse. Maybe a tac nuke in Lithuania, NATO would not dare respond. Zelensky should not use any nuclear payloads, not a silver bullet.