politics

NBC is now calling a flip in the Senate

53 R / 47 D&I

PA flipped R.

I wanted to keep the discussion on the House and Senate races separate. The Presidential thread will be busy enough!

I'm not crazy enough to parse 435 House seats, but I did do the Senate races:

https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-election/

"There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents."

AZ - Kyrsten Sinema - I - Not Running
Ruben Gallego - D - Seems likely to win. Lake is nuts.
Kari Lake - R
Called for Gallego

This wouldn't flip the seat as Sinema caucuses with the Democrats.

FL - Rick Scott - R
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell - D.
Rick Scott - Safe R.
Called for Scott

Former RNC head Michael Steele says this is one to watch, Scott may be on the chopping block. Polling doesn't show that and with Trump having home state advantage, I don't see a split ticket there.

MD - Ben Cardin - D - Not Running
Angela Alsobrooks - Safe D.
Larry Hogan - R
Called for Alsobrooks

MI - Debbie Stabenow - D - Not Running
Elissa Slotkin - Safe D.
Mike Rogers - R
Called for Slotkin

MT - Jon Tester - D
Jon Tester - D
Tim Sheehy - R - Ahead in polling.
Called for Sheehy

Likely flip D to R, despite the fact that Tester is well liked in MT. Polling is giving Sheehy the edge.

NV - Jacky Rosen - D
Jacky Rosen - Safe D.
Sam Brown - R
Called for Rosen

OH - Sherrod Brown - D
Sherrod Brown - D.
Bernie Moreno - R
Called for Moreno - Flipping

Tossup. Brown leads in 4/5 polls, but it's a margin of error lead. Moreno is up in the most recent polling.

PA - Bob Casey - D
Bob Casey - Safe D.
David McCormick - R
Called for McCormick - this is the first race I missed. :(

TX - Ted Cruz - R
Colin Allred - D
Ted Cruz - Safe R.
Called for Cruz

Allred is up in only one poll, if the Cancun thing didn't sink Cruz, nothing will. Texas is gonna Texas.

WI - Tammy Baldwin - D
Tammy Baldwin - Safe D.
Eric Hovde - R
Called for Baldwin

WV - Joe Manchin - I - Not Running
Glenn Elliott - D
Jim Justice - Safe R.
Called for Justice

The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party.

CA - Laphonza Butler - D - Not Running
Adam Schiff - Safe D.
Steve Garvey - R.
Called for Schiff

CT - Chris Murphy - D
Chris Murphy - Safe D.
Matt Corey - R.
Called for Murphy

DE - Tom Carper - D - Not Running
Lisa Blunt Rochester - Safe D.
Eric Hansen - R.
Called for Rochester

HI Mazie Hirono - D
Mazie Hirono - Safest D that ever D'd.
Bob McDermott - R
Called for Hirono

IN - Mike Braun - R - Running for Gov.
Valerie McCray - D.
Jim Banks - Safe R.
Called for Banks

MA - Elizabeth Warren - D
Elizabeth Warren - Safe D.
John Deaton - R.
Called for Warren

ME - Angus King - I
David Costello - D.
Demi Kouzounas - R.
Angus King - Safe I, Caucuses with D's.
Called for King

MN - Amy Klobuchar - D
Amy Klobuchar - Safe D.
Royce White - R.
Called for Klobuchar

MO - Josh Hawley - R
Lucas Kunce - D.
Josh Hawley - Safe R.
Called for Hawley

MS - Roger Wicker - R
Ty Pinkins - D
Roger Wicker - Safe R.
Called for Wicker

ND - Kevin Cramer - R
Katrina Christiansen - D.
Kevin Cramer - Safe R.
Called for Cramer

NE - Deb Fischer - R
Deb Fischer - Safe R.
Dan Osborn - I
Called for Fischer

Osborn is making this a nail biter, but I don't see a steady red state going I.

NE - Pete Ricketts - R
Preston Love - D.
Pete Ricketts - Safe R.
Called for Ricketts

NJ - George Helmy - D - Not Running, replaced Menendez.
Andy Kim - Safe D.
Curtis Bashaw - R.
Called for Kim

NM - Martin Heinrich - D
Martin Heinrich - Safe D.
Nella Domenici - R.
Called for Heinrich

NY - Kirsten Gillibrand - D
Kirsten Gillibrand - Safe D.
Mike Sapraicone - R.
Called for Gillibrand

RI - Sheldon Whitehouse - D
Sheldon Whitehouse - Safe D.
Patricia Morgan - R.
Called for Whitehouse

TN - Marsha Blackburn - R
Gloria Johnson - D.
Marsha Blackburn - Safe R.
Called for Blackburn

UT - Mitt Romney - R - Not Running
Caroline Gleich - D.
John Curtis - Safe R.
Called for Curtis

VA - Tim Kaine - D
Tim Kaine - Safe D.
Hung Cao - R.
Called for Kaine

VT - Bernie Sanders - I
Bernie Sanders - Safe I.
Gerald Malloy - R.
Called for Sanders

WA - Maria Cantwell - D
Maria Cantwell - Safe D.
Raul Garcia
Called for Cantwell

WY - John Barrasso - R
Scott Morrow - D.
John Barrasso - Safe R.
Called for Barrasso

So...

Ind. -> D +1 (Sinema, no real change)
D -> R +1 (Montana) - Flipped R.
Ind. -> R +1 (Manchin) - Flipped R.
Tossup - OH - Flipped R.

Ohio and Montana are going to be the races to watch. Right now, the Senate is split 49 Republicans, 47 Democrats, 4 Independents Caucusing with Democrats (Sinema, Manchin, King, and Sanders).

As VP, Harris casts the tie breaking vote which gives the Democrats the majority in the Senate, Committee controls, etc. etc. etc.

So if Montana flips. 50 R, 46 D + 4 I = 50. VP is the tie breaker.

WV flips with Manchin's seat going R. 51 R, 46 D + 3 I = 49. Democrats are out of the majority.

AZ flips with Sinema's seat going D. 51 R, 47 D + 2 I = 49. Doesn't change the math as Sinema caucused with the Democrats.

OH flipped R, 52 R vs. 46 D + 2 I = 48.

PA flipped, which I did NOT see coming. 53 R now, still AZ outstanding. Best case would be 47.

NE is a wildcard if it flips from R to I. 51 R vs. 46 D + 3 I = 49.

However you slice it though, it looks like Democrats will lose the majority in the Senate.