this post was submitted on 22 Dec 2024
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How long have people been trying to make smart homes a thing? I feel like this would have happened by now if there was a real mass market for them. It’s not like there is a huge technological impediment to achieving that vision, like there is for VR/AR. In other ways it’s just like VR, a cool idea that’s been around forever, but doesn’t seem to have widespread application or demand.
If apple is really working on this, I consider it further evidence that they are really really struggling to have a substantive vision of the future. Other than incremental improvement of existing products and financially beneficial business maneuvers, what have they done in the last decade other than try to grasp at old sci-fi notions of ‘the future’. I suspect that this can’t change until they get new leadership. Of course, they’ve largely achieved escape velocity in terms of revenue, and are so established now that the money machine will keep working for a long time, independent of any need to be actually visionary.
The biggest problem for smart homes for people who aren't enormous nerds is that nothing works together with each other in a simple, coordinated way.
And, of course, one of Apple's biggest strengths is that they've built a cohesive ecosystem that, usually, works just fine with limited fiddling.
Right now you've either got 14 apps for different shit, or you've built something like Home Assistant to try to glue together all this garbage into a coherent solution. I've gone that route, and it works mostly, usually, typically, fine-ish.
It's a shit experience, still, because it's a pile of random plugins and code from random people glued into something that can't stop fucking with existing and working features and thus is perpetually in need of updates and maintenance and fiddling.
I wouldn't bet against Apple being able to make a doorbell, security cameras, light switches, and a thermostat and then turning that into something that actually works properly in homekit, is kept updated, and is easy to configure and use and secure.
That's really the missing piece that nobody seems to have been interested or willing to go after.
I don’t doubt apple’s ability to make this work well. I do doubt that there is more than a niche market for it. I also think it’s boring, and for some reason, I still expect apple to do better.
Well no, it's not enormous, but Amazon is selling a couple million ring doorbells a year, and a couple million more of their cameras.
It's a sufficiently large market to hop into, especially if you can make a product that's easier to deal with from an ecosystem perspective than the incumbents, which isn't something I'd ever bet against Apple managing to pull off.