this post was submitted on 31 Jan 2025
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I think he's simply following the plan his new bfff Stephen Miran laid out in A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System (pdf: https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf)
tldr: use tariffs to cause allies to fall in line and further entwine economies with the American security apparatus, then copy paste to the broader globe with tariffs on everything. effectively using inflation to consolidate capital further and pull as much manufacturing "home" as possible.
Starting with North America kills the chicken to tame the monkey (whip major world powers by bloodying minor ones) and puts him in ideal place to milk what little surplus value the bourgeoisie doesn't have obvious access to. Implementation relies heavily on American military might and a productive capacity that existed in prior decades; it's unclear whether that terrain matches the map anymore.
Trump is inconsistent and surrounded by the dipshit peons of a crumbling empire so who knows what actually happens, but I believe the intent is clear.
Coincidentally blurted out a post along the same lines. I wholeheartedly agree, it's a threat to make allies and dependent governments fall in line.
Imagine how much it'd hurt Germany if they get hit with tariffs, they'd do anything to avoid that. Even supporting war against China against their own interests. And if they're hit, German capital will just flow naturally to the US and it'll become Poland 2.
Edit: hyperlink ate the parenthesis.
Do you have a read on the viability of this?
I'd see it as a plausible effort to extend American influence if it was done at the end of Trumps first term, but the failed proxy war has blessed western powers with a trove of debts and embarrassments amid already active de-industrialization across the the EU. I can't imagine it'll be simple to reunite hungry, embarassed people behind such an extreme neoliberal scheme while BRICS is visibly prospering next door.
In North America, Canada has been a vassal state for decades, and while Mexico has built internal capacity and infrastructure that may grant some degree of independence, Canada seems to be in a hopeless position. Canadian politicians are blustering about cutting off trade or power to the States, but if this is just phase 1 of a multi pronged strategy, one would expect Trump to respond with much higher and widespread tariffs to ensure compliance in future phases (from all future parties). Nevermind that the American market would be forced to react to denied imports by building capacity to finance permanent alternatives which is what Trump wants in the first place.
Canada painted itself into a corner. Internal trade is intentionally obstructed by oligopolies in each province, and we don't have the economic complexity to finance qualitative improvement to infrastructure because all we have are primary commodities - which will be affected by the volatility caused by tarrifs. We might delay the crunch by simply appeasing Trump for now, but ultimately everyone needs a basic mutual aid strategy for bank runs and layoffs - and the only long-term solution is a thorough reconsideration of how to light the coming swell of revolutionary potential our aristocratic unions and parties sure won't.
I think you nailed it. Canada will get crunched and any exports to US are going to lose profitability with 25% tariffs in place. Demand will fall eventually because Americans aren't an infinite source of money.
You don't need accelerationism when Trump is president. The Canadian car factories are going to feel the pressure. They never gave a shit about diversifying away from the US market so the layoffs will be coming.
Revolutionary potential? Possibly. When there's mass layoffs you kinda need mass employment to address it.
If Canada had any brains they would trade with Europe. But they are too stupid and gutless to do that.
Being very honest, my answer is "I'm not sure". I think it makes some sense in Canada, but another user somewhere pointed to how Mexico is actually industrialising. It might only work with definite military vassals like Europe? Trump is certainly not taking the FDR road to fight the new cold war. I'll gladly admit I haven't managed to sit down and research this properly, and it's all just disorganised thoughts for now.