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Xi denies 2027 Taiwan invasion plans, but analysts say island should remain vigilant
(www.straitstimes.com)
this post was submitted on 18 Nov 2023
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Can I read more about this somewhere? My understanding was that it would be extremely difficult to the point of impracticality to compete with TSMC or would at least take decades to match them in terms of process and scale. I don't really know much about chip manufacturing though.
China isn't held back by personnel. Intuitively, this makes sense even if you subscribe to the Western idea that Chinese people can only copy things: Taiwanese people can easily work in China because of trade/border agreements, China isn't a poor country, and TSMC employs a massive number of highly experienced engineers. The Taiwan/China culture war is really a Western construct and many TSMC engineers are happy to take jobs in China. SMIC has already shown 7nm DUV capability (comparable to state-of-the-art by Intel).
The only thing holding back Chinese semiconductor capability in terms of hardware is the lack of EUV machines, which are only made by ASML. There are rumours spinning around in Chinese circles that Huawei has an EUV prototype in the debugging stage with a tentative release target of 2025.
If anything, China is far more constrained in terms of software (in a market dominated by Cadence and Synopsys), but this is much more easily circumventable with enough resources. The only reason Cadence and Synopsys haven't had much competition is because it's really expensive to develop and doesn't have that much competitive edge, but that equation changes for China given how happy the US is to slap export restrictions everywhere.
Yeah I guess China firing missiles around Taiwan was just a western construct too I guess. Come on, I'm interested to learn more about chip manufacturing and the practicality or otherwise of someone competing with TSMC and thought you might have interesting sources I hadn't read.
You could also argue that the U.S isn't constrained by population and they also have access to the technology and even buy in from TSMC but they haven't managed to kick start chip manufacturing there yet either unless there are developments there that I missed.
For now, doesn't seem like the situation is going to be changing anytime soon.
The US is constrained by capitalism and globalization... And years of mismanagement at Intel under Krzanich... and the lack of profitability of Global Foundries.
Intel only recently adopted a foundry model: previously, their fabs were only used to manufacture Intel chips... I'm sure you can imagine some of the issues there, but it helps that Intel is a massive company. Intel really bit off more than they could chew with 10nm and started to lag behind.
GloFo used to be AMD (until it was spun off for profit because AMD needed money... GloFo gave up on 7nm because it was seen as too expensive.
As for Samsung? Nobody really knows why Samsung's technology sucks, but it sucks. Something wrong with their FinFET process in general I guess.
TSMC isn't a decade ahead. They're maybe 5 years ahead of SMIC and maybe 2 years ahead of Intel/Samsung. They're only so far ahead of SMIC because SMIC isn't allowed to import EUV machines from ASML since the US decided that China was getting too close to toppling American dominance in semiconductors and AI.
The main thing limiting SMIC is the lack of EUV machines, but Huawei is expected to pop one out soon based on the rumours being spread on Chinese forums. That's the story. TSMC doesn't have some magic sauce, they have scale, billions of dollars in government support, and a slight technological edge. If anything, TSMC's magic sauce is that the most desirable job in STEM in Taiwan is to become an engineer at TSMC: they attract top talent in a way that Intel doesn't.