This is a most excellent place for technology news and articles.
I should really start looking into shorting stocks. I was looking at the news and Nvidia's stock and thought "huh, the stock hasn't reacted to these news at all yet, I should probably short this".
And then proceeded to do fuck all.
I guess this is why some people are rich and others are like me.
It's pretty difficult to open a true short position. Providers like Robinhood create contract for differences which are subject to their TOS.
I've never been so happy to cancel a subscription.
Good. That shit is way overvalued.
There is no way that Nvidia are worth 3 times as much as TSMC, the company that makes all their shit and more besides.
I'm sure some of my market tracker funds will lose value, and they should, because they should never have been worth this much to start with.
It’s because Nvidia is an American company and also because they make final stage products. American companies right now are all overinflated and almost none of the stocks are worth what they’re at because of foreign trading influence.
As much as people whine about inflation here, the US didn’t get hit as bad as many other countries and we recovered quickly which means that there is a lot of incentive for other countries to invest here. They pick our top movers, they invest in those. What you’re seeing is people bandwagoning onto certain stocks because the consistent gains create more consistent gains for them.
The other part is that yes, companies who make products at the end stage tend to be worth a lot more than people trading more fundamental resources or parts. This is true of almost every industry except oil.
I really hope this is the beginning of a massive correction on AI hype.
It’s a reaction to thinking China has better AI, not thinking AI has less value.
Or from the sounds of it, doing things more efficiently.
Fewer cycles required, less hardware required.
Maybe this was an inevitability, if you cut off access to the fast hardware, you create a natural advantage for more efficient systems.
What the fuck are markets when you can automate making money on them???
Ive been WTF about the stock market for a long time but now it's obviously a scam.
The stock market is nothing more than a barometer for the relative peace of mind of rich people.
I think this prompted investors to ask "where's the ROI?".
Current AI investment hype isn't based on anything tangible. At least the amount of investment isn't, it is absurd to think that trillion dollars that was put in the space already, even before that Softbanks deal is going to be returned. The models still hallucinate as it is inherent to the architecture, we are nowhere near replacing the workers but we got chatbots that "when they work sometimes, then they are kind of good?" and mediocre off-putting pictures. Is there any value? Sure, it's not NFTs. But the correction might be brutal.
Interestingly enough, DeepSeek's model is released just before Q4 earning's call season, so we will see if it has a compounding effect with another statement from big players that they burned massive amount of compute and USD only to get milquetoast improvements and get owned by a small Chinese startup that allegedly can do all that for 5 mil.
hype isn’t based on anything tangible
So just like crypto
EDIT: The crypto bros out in full force... and right on cue proudly proclaiming they don't understand the difference between the value of blockchain technology (which so far has not had a ton of real world value outside of mostly impractical database applications, other than furthering climate change and buying drugs) vs the SPECULATIVE value of coins since coins have no real value factors to back up their SPECULATIVE value. Stocks often have real value that back up their value, like company profits or products. Stop drinking kool aid to the point of literal zero critical thinking, jfc.
Was watching bbc news interview some American guy about this and wow they were really pushing that it's no big deal and deepseek is way behind and a bit of a joke. Made claims they weren't under cyber attack they just couldn't handle having traffic etc.
Kinda making me root for China honestly.
Shovel vendors scrambling for solid ground as prospectors start to understand geology.
...that is, this isn't yet the end of the AI bubble. It's just the end of overvaluing hardware because efficiency increased on the software side, there's still a whole software-side bubble to contend with.
It still rely on nvidia hardware why would it trigger a sell-off? Also why all media are picking up this news? I smell something fishy here...
Here's someone doing 200 tokens/s (for context, OpenAI doesn't usually get above 100) on... A Raspberry Pi.
Yes, the "$75-$120 micro computer the size of a credit card" Raspberry Pi.
If all these AI models can be run directly on users devices, or on extremely low end hardware, who needs large quantities of top of the line GPUs?
Thank the fucking sky fairies actually, because even if AI continues to mostly suck it'd be nice if it didn't swallow up every potable lake in the process. When this shit is efficient that makes it only mildly annoying instead of a complete shitstorm of failure.
It requires only 5% of the same hardware that OpenAI needs to do the same thing. So that can mean less quantity of top end cards and it can also run on less powerful cards (not top of the line).
Should their models become standard or used more commonly, then nvidis sales will drop.
The way I understood it, it's much more efficient so it should require less hardware.
Nvidia will sell that hardware, an obscene amount of it, and line will go up. But it will go up slower than nvidia expected because anything other than infinite and always accelerating growth means you're not good at business.
Great, a stock sale.
My understanding is that DeepSeek still used Nvidia just older models and way more efficiently, which was remarkable. I hope to tinker with the opensource stuff at least with a little Twitch chat bot for my streams I was already planning to do with OpenAI. Will be even more remarkable if I can run this locally.
However this is embarassing to the western companies working on AI and especially with the $500B announcement of Stargate as it proves we don't need as high end of an infrastructure to achieve the same results.
nvidia falling doesn't make much sense to me, GPUs are still needed to run the model. Unless Nvidia is involved in its own AI model or something?
If you need far less computing power to train the models, far less gpus are needed, and that hurts nvidia
