this post was submitted on 20 Jun 2025
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A teetering U.S. residential solar industry may now be on the brink of collapse. Faced by macroeconomic challenges and shifting sands of state and federal policies, an industry once defined by double-digit growth in installations is experiencing steep declines – and the latest draft of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act makes things far worse.

The latest draft of the bill is bad all-around for clean energy, but it is particularly damaging to residential solar, cutting federal tax credits far sooner than expected.

Residential solar installations declined 31% in 2024. Over the last year, industry titans like SunPower, Sunnova, and Mosaic Solar have filed for bankruptcy.

The industry historically has leaned on the value proposition of lowering customer electricity bills and providing predictable costs for the long-term. However, that value has been increasingly difficult to provide.

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[–] ProdigalFrog@slrpnk.net 2 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 1 hour ago)

I think a potential solution or workaround could be to opt for cooperatively owned large solar installations, but this would require buy-in from a community to get it started, and is something those subsidies would've made easier.

Still, it could be that only a portion of your power bill is covered by the solar coop, making the initial price from each member lower. Then more panels could be added slowly as members choose to invest small amounts each month, until over time all of their power usage is from solar.

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 2 points 6 hours ago

The United States may find a path forward by pursuing market conditions like Australia, where over 40% of homes in some regions have rooftop solar. Soft costs are far lower in the nation, and average residential solar installation cost was $0.89 per W, more than $2.00 per W cheaper than both Canada and the United States.

That path requires oligarchist monopoly utilities to have less influence on oligarchist political parties. Biden's approach of creating a new green energy manufacturing oligarchy protection doesn't help with low prices that could be achieved if main utility monopoly obstruction to home solar were removed. FF Oligarchy assists utility monopolies in their lobbying for centralized power production. It is not within US political corruption overton window to help citizens escape extortion.

[–] Marthirial@lemmy.world 11 points 11 hours ago

Here in Texas, leasing solar is a scam and there are no meaningful savings unless adding decent batteries often not provided by the leasing companies.

Instead, we chose a provider that offers 100% green electricity.

[–] UncleGrandPa@lemmy.world 16 points 14 hours ago

Solar is the one path to free us from dependency to Big Oil

They therefore must be shut down

[–] SimpleMachine@sh.itjust.works 11 points 15 hours ago (2 children)

Not surprised, the several quotes I got to install them on my roof were crazy. Could have got a new roof like twice for the price of putting solar on top. And this was a couple years ago before all these new tariffs.

A 20 year break-even timeline isn't much of a value proposition.

[–] chonglibloodsport@lemmy.world 5 points 10 hours ago

The dirty secret of any home reno tax credit is that the industry gobbles them up with markups. The price ends up being exactly the same as it would be without the tax credit, so it’s a subsidy for uncompetitive installation companies rather than families who want to invest in green energy.

[–] TheBloodFarts@lemmy.ca 2 points 10 hours ago

How much for the quoted systems? And what expected output? Genuinely curious

[–] Bebopalouie@lemmy.ca 7 points 15 hours ago (1 children)

Dune: Awakening. The real question here is why are there no solar panels on a planet that literally roasts you if you go out uncovered?

[–] Aermis@lemmy.world 4 points 15 hours ago

Sand storms? Also heat is bad for panels

[–] BananaTrifleViolin@lemmy.world 103 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (2 children)

So to summarise the challenges the industry is facing:

  • Tariffs on Aluminium - Trump
  • Tariffs on Solar imports - Trump
  • Sudden loss of federal grants that covered 30% of the cost for installation (was due to run til 2030 now slashed) - Trump
  • Slashing of the fees owners get for selling money to the grid by 75% - Oil industry lobbying / Trump
  • Removal of investment credits which have specifically been stripped from solar but not other energy investments - Trump

To call this "macro economic" issues is bizarre. All of this is due to government policy and actions. It's also notable that the rest of the world's solar industry is not collapsing. Trump.and the republicans are selling out US consumers to prop up the oil industry and tax cuts for the rich.

[–] Squizzy@lemmy.world 9 points 15 hours ago

Its not bizzare if you take the view that America is a shit hole with spineless media, propping up shameless leaders put their by a borderline retarded electorate.

[–] shalafi@lemmy.world 10 points 16 hours ago (1 children)

solar installations declined 31% in 2024

Trump wasn't in office. Those bullet points will make things even worse, but other factors preceded Trump.

[–] Squizzy@lemmy.world 11 points 15 hours ago (1 children)

Like a previous Trump adminstration?

I dont know the story here but he definitely was here before 2024 with bug spastic energy.

[–] shalafi@lemmy.world 1 points 8 hours ago

In 2022, the Biden Administration passed the Inflation Reduction Act, extending a tax credit that covers 30% of installed system costs through the mid-2030s.

And yet the installations crashed 2-years later. We can see how jacked up it is going forward, but why does the article not address past causes?

[–] WHARRGARBL@lemmy.world 41 points 1 day ago (3 children)

Currently living in the sunniest city in the world, but had to pass on solar panels. Choices are to either buy outright or lease. The lease option is predatory as hell, but the cost of buying and maintaining outweighs the eventual savings because the power company monopoly keeps juking credits. American fuckery strikes again.

[–] SolarMonkey@slrpnk.net 10 points 16 hours ago

You may want to look into installing used solar from solar farms. They have to periodically swap their panels and stuff, but they still work fine and have most of their efficiency/life left in them, but for a HUGE cost reduction over buying them new.

[–] pdqcp@lemmy.dbzer0.com 5 points 16 hours ago* (last edited 16 hours ago) (2 children)

Have you looked into partially converting your home to off grid solar instead? Basically you have your home running solar during the day and any excess/night time energy required you can get from the power company as usual. No credit fuckery required

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 1 points 5 hours ago

This generally means a small solar system. Cost per watt is higher than larger systems.

[–] invertedspear@lemmy.zip 11 points 15 hours ago (1 children)

If that person lives where I do, the local power company has stupidly high rates for doing that. The only real way to save is to go completely off grid. There are two plans, one pays you almost nothing for the excess solar produced, the other charges you “high demand” rates if you exceed some arbitrary usage number at your peak even if you produced all the power yourself. It’s so freaking confusing for no reason other than to punish you for trying to offset your power bill with solar energy.

[–] WHARRGARBL@lemmy.world 4 points 15 hours ago (1 children)

I see you’re an APS hostage, too.

[–] invertedspear@lemmy.zip 4 points 12 hours ago

SRP, but they’re pulling the same shit, protecting outdated business models.

[–] Drusas@fedia.io 5 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Excuse my ignorance as someone who has not looked into getting my own solar panels, but can you tell me what the preferred option would be, since neither buying nor leasing are an option for you? Is it to purchase on credit?

[–] Infinite@lemmy.zip 16 points 1 day ago

The ideal would be a loan where the payments aren't terribly out of line with the electric bill reduction. With current interest rates and price increases from tariffs, the loan payments would probably be 2-3x the electric bill.

The timeline for repayment on purchase has gone from maybe 7-10 years to more like 15. YMMV based on state, local W/m², power supplier, etc.

[–] match@pawb.social 15 points 1 day ago (1 children)

are solar panels still so cheap in China that they're replacing fences

[–] Drusas@fedia.io 2 points 1 day ago

Probably, if you get them from AliExpress.

[–] scytale@lemmy.zip 13 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Yeah I got an email from our solar panel company that they’re filing for bankruptcy. I just hope whoever picks them up doesn’t jack up lease prices to make up for it.

[–] ggtdbz@lemmy.dbzer0.com 17 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Wait wait wait — lease?

Are you telling me the closest thing humanity has ever made to a true install-once-reap-indefinitely energy machine is a subscription where you are? Solar panel company?!

Solar has been a major, major life changer for me (I’m not in the US). Probably the most expensive thing that isn’t a car that my family has ever bought, but it’s turned my life completely around. I had never had 24 hour electricity at my own house before throwing a bunch of acid batteries and panels onto my roof and it feels like a decadent luxury. Plus I can tell the electricity mob to go get fucked, at least between February and November. Worth every excruciating penny.

I know it might be expensive and maybe not easy to get the best deal but I’d think owning your own solar is more important than owning your own home. Although now that I say it this way, I’m thinking maybe you’re renting and that’s why you need to rent the panels too. Different places are different etc.

[–] Infinite@lemmy.zip 11 points 1 day ago

My favorite solar scam is the Power Purchase Agreement:

  • company installs solar, you pay $0
  • typically sized to generate 100-150% of your consumption
  • company bills you ~80% of your actual or previous average use
  • price is on contract and has scheduled increases
  • after 15-20 years, negotiate a new contract, maybe buy the system, or have it removed

What if solar gets 20x better? Fusion gets solved? Too bad, contract pricing.

[–] jaybone@lemmy.zip 2 points 1 day ago

I think the idea is you eventually pay it off.

[–] sturlabragason@lemmy.world 10 points 1 day ago (1 children)

What timeline are you from

[–] sturlabragason@lemmy.world 14 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)
[–] sharkfucker420@lemmy.ml 2 points 23 hours ago

Man if only we had cheaper solar panels. Its too bad no one produces those