To be fair, it hit an all time high two trading days before Altman was fired. Luckily the market was closed over the weekend, and the issue resolved in Microsoft’s favor before the market opened. Way cheaper to have the lead and a written intent from 80% of the brains stating desire to follow than having to license an external company.
this post was submitted on 20 Nov 2023
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I was thinking the increase would be huge, but it went up 2%. Not nothing. But I was expecting a big jump.
When you’re just shy of a three trillion dollar company big jumps are harder. Plus with the stock up 15% for the month and up 56% for the year people’s, once balanced, portfolios are likely already overly committed to Microsoft based on how it’s performed this year. It’s hard to ignore a stock when it’s performing this well, this consistently, but it puts an investor in a precarious position. If you haven’t already invested based on the AI boom this year has brought, this wouldn’t have been a tipping point. It was a plus, but only a small plus comparatively. The shake up of OpenAI has much more potential for a big sell off for Microsoft than a buying frenzy. This was more silver lining on instability of a big bet Microsoft made.
My bet is on Google or Anthropic filling the void. This space is moving fast and Altman’s new devision will already be several years behind.
Except Bard sucks and was notably inferior to ChatGPT. Altman brought over a huge chunk of OpenAI employees, it isn't like they're starting over completely from scratch.
They won't be starting over at all since MS has access to the source code and IP according to this article: https://stratechery.com/2023/openais-misalignment-and-microsofts-gain/
Wow, that article was extremely insightful, thanks for linking that. With all of that context, I am suddenly feeling a lot more uneasy about all of this. Microsoft is essentially taking over OpenAI without having to take it over, pretty freaking wild. Additionally, without OpenAI's safety teams providing direct oversight on their tech, one can only hope that Microsoft's AGI progress is slow enough so that regulators get off their asses and get some safety barrier laws in place.
Mostly starting over code wise.
I’ve had to rebuild a thing or two in my day, and building it the second time is always faster, but still, you’ve got to write all the crap over again.
This will undoubtedly be way faster than doing a startup from scratch, but they’re literally starting from a position of having no code checked in at all.
They don't need to start over. Have you been following the open source model progression the last 5-6 months? Those LLMs have made crazy progress in such a short span of time. They can easily take one of those existing models and improve upon them or at least borrow as much as needed. And I also find it hard to believe that Microsoft hasn't been secretly developing their own model(s) at all.
I agree that losing their original egg is definitely a setback, but for all we know this fresh start with Microsoft may allow them to try some new and better ideas they couldn't afford to do at ChatGPT due to the sunk investment costs they had in their original tool.
Anywho, time will tell!
That and re-training the models once the code is rewritten. Presumably MS doesn’t have access to the same training sets (they almost certainly have their own, but we don’t know the breadth or quality by comparison to OpenAIs data sets)
This is the best summary I could come up with:
That comes after shares of Microsoft fell 1.7% on Friday, when Sam Altman was ousted from his position at OpenAI in a boardroom coup.
Altman’s hiring ended days of speculation that the former chief executive could return to the firm after his dramatic firing.
The stock is one of the “Magnificent Seven” that have powered the lion’s share of the market’s returns this year, boosted by Wall Street’s bet that artificial intelligence is the next big thing in tech.
Dan Ives, tech analyst at Wedbush Securities, reiterated his $425 price target for Microsoft’s stock following Altman’s and Brockman’s hires.
“We view Microsoft now even in a stronger position from an AI perspective with Altman and Brockman” at the company, Ives wrote in a note on Monday.
Nvidia shares gained 2.3% to end the trading session at $504.20 ahead of its earnings due on Tuesday, notching a record-high close for the chipmaker.
The original article contains 275 words, the summary contains 151 words. Saved 45%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!
it's going a lot higher