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AI will follow the same path as VR IMO. Everybody will freak out about it for a while, tons of companies will try getting into the market.
And after a few years, nobody will really care about it anymore. The people that use it will like it. It will become integrated in subtle and mundane ways, like how VR is used in TikTok filters, Smart phone camera settings, etc.
I don't think it will become anything like general intelligence.
That's exactly what was said about the internet in 1990. We have no idea what the next step will be.
The problem with VR is the cost of a headset. It’s a high cost of entry. Few want to buy another expensive device unless it’s really worth it.
Generative AI has a small cost of entry for the consumer. Just log in to a site, maybe pay some subscription fee, and start prompting. I’ve used it to quickly generate Excel formulas for example. Instead of looking for a particular answer in some website with SEO garbage I can get an answer immediately.
Nah, this ain't it.
So here's the thing about AI, every company desperately wants their employees to be using it because it'll increase their productivity and eventually allow upper management to fire more people and pass the savings onto the C suites. Just like with computerization.
The problem is that you can't just send all of your spreadsheets on personal financial data to OpenAI/Bing because from a security perspective that's a huge black hole of data exfiltration which will make your company more vulnerable. How do we solve the problem?
In the next five to ten years you will see everyone from Microsoft/Google to smaller more niche groups begin to offer on-premise or cloud based AI models that are trained on a standardized set of information by the manufacturer/distributor, and then personally trained on company data by internal engineers or a new type of IT role completely focused on AI (just like how we have automation and cloud engineering positions today.)
The data worker of the future will have a virtual assistant that emulates everything that we thought Google assistant and Cortana was going to be, and will replace most data entry positions. Programmers will probably be fewer and further between, and the people that keep their jobs in general will be the ones who can multiply and automate their workload with the ASSISTANCE of AI.
It's not going to replace us anytime soon, but it's going to change the working environment just as much as the invention of the PC did.
Whatever this iteration of "AI" will be, it has a limit that the VC bubble can't fulfill. That's kind of the point though because these VC firms, aided by low interest rates, can just fund whatever tech startup they think has a slight chance of becoming absorbed in to a tech giant. Most of the AI companies right now are going to fail, as long as they do it as cheaply as possible, the VC firms basically skim the shit that floats to the top.
This is probably a much better analogy than NFTs, but the dotcom bubble had much broader implications
