I think we'll have a Dem trifecta after election night. I feel the even the nonpartisan polls have overcorrected in favor of Republicans after 2016, and since the overturning of Roe, polls have been underestimating Dem candidates.
this post was submitted on 17 Oct 2024
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Without question Trump is winning. It feels like it should defy logic, but it actually matches with the current mood in the nation, and the state of the 'culture war'.
It's a toss up and I have no special crystal ball, but if I had to do arbitrage on it I think the risk of a 2000-style tie is even higher than projected (already 10% per Nate Silver), just based on the vibes I'm hearing.
I hope its a 269 to 269 tie cuz that would be funny af
57% chance of Trump. If I thought the odds were otherwise, I would bet otherwise: https://www.electionbettingodds.com/President2024_week.html
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