this post was submitted on 27 Oct 2024
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Been saying this for months. While exit polling is the only useful polling coming into this, all of the signs from previous battleground states since 2018 says everything will skew Dems. Moreso since all the abortion and other terrible SCOTUS bullshit happened.
I'm putting these bets down:
Florida going for Harris is a huge wtf in this blog post. It's a bold prediction far against every other poll I've seen.
If Harris wins FL, then Trump is just completely fucked.
Mind you: FL is basically Trump's home state as New Yorkers dont like him, and Mar-a-lago resort was his main base of operation in 2016. I find it very unlikely for Trump to lose FL, even with all the points brought up in this blog post.
Well, it makes sense, on one hand, but not in another.
Where it makes sense:
Where it doesn't make sense:
It's less likely to happen. Not impossible. AZ is way more likely.
Gerrymandering has nothing to do with the presidential election.
It does when your nearest polling station is across town. This is one of the many games they play in districting.
Yeah, but that's "easy" to do without gerrymandering as well.
According to some of the forecasts I’ve seen that suggest a strong chance for a Harris win (as in, 77% chance) she only has a 3% chance to turn FL blue. So, not really plausible, but there are a few scenarios that see her winning it.