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Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how
(www.desmoinesregister.com)
this post was submitted on 03 Nov 2024
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I'm trying not to get too excited about a Trump defeat before it happens. But yes to all you said.
It IS a good sign for Harris, but like I said, trying to interpret this nation wide is a bad move. If you did the same thing for Nevada(bluest swing state in 2016 only one Hillary held, second bluest in 2020 only behind Michigan) which is by far the reddest in Early Voting you'd assume Harris was about to get red waved.
All this truly tells us is that the North and Great Lakes region is getting bluer and the Sunbelt is getting redder. Iowa was the reddest of the 4/5 weak red states(People thought Alaska was more gettable than it) and now it might be the bluest. Nevada was the bluest swing state until a month ago and it's suddenly on track to be the reddest. Arizona was the tightest swing state and now it's gone hard red, Georgia was safe red until it was dead tight. Trends can break locally without nessacrily indicating a nation swing. Like I said, if you used the 'Iowa going blue/being close means Kamala sweeps everything' argument for Nevada you'd be dooming hard.
The early voting data suggests Iowa is alone in this at least on the blue side, and it's narrow enough the red favored election day would likely take it back. It's actually about as blue as New Hampshire which...is either a good thing or a bad thing depending on how you expect election day to turnout. (both are less blue percentage wise than the rust belt swing states and both would be swing states by their current ratios if it wasn't too late to add them).
Was this the same poll that screwed over Bernie because he was winning?
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/bernie-sanders-takes-narrow-lead-iowa-poll-buttigieg-support-slips-n1113966
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/des-moines-register-pulls-gold-standard-iowa-poll-after-potential-n1128366