this post was submitted on 11 Nov 2024
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I mean most states have less than 1% of votes left to count. What change are you expecting from this graph?
Millions more votes from California, Harris and Trump will both get 40% more votes than they have now by the time counting is complete. That's 2.9 million for Harris and 1.9 for Trump. Completely changes the graph. Harris lost something like 5-10% of Biden electorate and Trump gained a few percent of his. Still bad for Harris but doesn't support the narrative this chart wants to be true.
40% more votes than they have now is 28 million votes each. There is definitely not 56 million more votes to count. At best there's about a million more left to count. Over 150 million votes have already been counted. That's just about the vast majority of votes cast
Sorry if I was unclear, I was just speaking to California, which is the only state with a significant number of votes left to count. Last I checked nationally we were at 95% counted.
As of 10:30am ET on November 11, populous states that have counted less than 95% of the expected votes include:
Just eyeballing those, and a few other smaller states with a significant number left to count, it looks like we can probably expect a few million more Harris votes to be added, and maybe another million or two Trump votes to be added.
So a quick eyeball estimate is that the 2020 minus 2024 gap should probably shrink by about half when it's all counted.