this post was submitted on 12 Nov 2024
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Every military pact is a "defense pact". And no country with "superpower" or "regional power" ambition accepts another power right on its doorsteps.
I think the best historical example of the 20th century is the Cuban missile crisis. NATO-Nukes in Turkey, Warsaw-Pact-Nukes in Cuba. Both sides feeling threatened. The solution was to remove both missile threats.
And Finland now sharing a border with Russia certainly is not going to make them more fine with NATO in Ukraine. That is not how geopolitics work.
Lol sure buddy.
So let's arm Ukraine to their teeths and see the russian "empire" crumble. It's overdue anyway.
Incoming: WW3!!!
Did you even read what i wrote?
There is a fundamental difference between arming a country and permanently integrating it into one geopolitical side. If you are so eager to fight in a war Ukraine can use every fighter. But it is always easy to call for other people to go to war isn't it?
Why would Ukraine need to be neutral? Russians have shown themselves to be hostile and don't respect neutrality. So fuck em.
Also the "oh you want Ukraine in NATO? Then go fight there yourself!!!!!" Is such a fucking obvious russian shill line repeated over and over and over again.
Neutral Ukraine would mean a buffer between Russia and NATO. Russia claims it feels threatened by NATOs expansion to the East. While it is understandable for countries to prefer being in NATO over under Russian influence, that is how geopolitical security works. The US would never accept say Mexico to join a Russian or Chinese military pact.
There is only two ways to get Russia out of Ukraine:
Either defeat them and drive them out, or negotiate for them to withdraw.
The latter wont happen with categorically demanding Ukraine to join NATO. The first needs much more Western support, in particular more soldiers to fight the war. When you exclude negotiating, not being willing to support your demand of fighting with your own capabilities is cynical. And that also goes to show how the support so far worked. Making grand statements, but when it came to actually giving what was necessary to Ukraine to defend itself, the West always fell short. If Ukraine had gotten proper equipment right away, the war could be over with a military win of Ukraine. Now to not only hold the line, but push back Russia, Ukraine needs far far more support, that the West is clearly not willing to give.
I want a strong Ukraine with fully territorial integrity. Maybe this can be negotiated as the costs of the war for Russia keep increasing. But this needs to offer Russia an out. Denying that out means the only two options left are a military win or military defeat of Russia. Either will be incredibly costly for Ukraine.
And I don't give two shits about buffers. Russia started this mess, let them sort it out. Russia claims a lot of shit but the reality is - they are the agressors. They had every chance of enjoying free trade, peaceful coexistence but they chose war. So now they get fucked over it. And they deserve every single second of it happening to them. Russia will fracture into a million pieces. They are getting desperate. And you don't win with "desperate" by appeasing those assholes and giving them a second chance to invade in 5 years. 40% of GDP spent on war, and they're still unable to do shit.
I like how you talk about it as if it's about game pieces on a game board. What about the people from Ukraine? How about letting them decide on which "geopolitical side" they want to live?
Which is why someone in Finland shouldn't be making statements limiting Ukraines decision space. If Ukranians decide to continue the war so they can join NATO, then that is their decision and should be supported.
This brings us back to the problem that the Western support has been lacking and now with Trump becomes even more lackluster. But the West cannot withdraw military support while demanding Ukraine to continue fighting.
As it stands Ukraine will be delivered to the Russian slaughter instead of working on actual solutions.
I read you talking about establishing a buffer zone between Russia and NATO. If this isn't limiting Ukraine's decision space over the head of Ukrainians, what is?
Ukraine, with its 1991 border in NATO!
Russia gets denuclearisation.
World peace follows.
And how would "properly armed" be different to NATO? Putin wants Ukraine to be demilitarized. The options for actual reliable self defense for Ukraine are either NATO membership or a nuclear arsenal.
Nukes are one option. Otherwise giving Ukraine the ability to rebuild its military and arsenal, in particular defensive weapons like Anti-Air and Anti-Missile capabilities.
A Ukraine with nukes is as bad for Russia as a Ukraine in NATO. Russia wants to rule again over "its" (aka Soviet) lost "sphere of influence". This is textbook imperialism and if that's what you want to defend here, fine. Just don't expect me to agree.
Worse for Russia I'd argue. A NATO member state still lays under the pressure of political power of the pact. Ukraine armed with nukes is something that could go south with a future leadership change for the worse. And despite all the propaganda, Russia very well knows that they aren't actually threatened by NATO - at least for as long as they don't attack member states, which is where the issue lies. They want Ukraine, that's why they don't want them in NATO. Can't invade and annex them anymore once they're part of the pact.
..which is why we urgently need to dump the general rule of "frozen conflicts prevent accession into NATO" and change them into tailormade agreements. Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine: so far, Russia has an incentive for frozen conflicts to steer these countries on the course it wants. We should no longer allow this.
I mean... North Macedonia joined NATO in 1995.
The EU accepts countries with border disputes into the union (in fact there's a couple very fun ones between member states, generally low-intensity though, e.g NL and DE even agreed to disagree in perpetuity), the EU is also a defensive pact, trouble being getting into the EU is quite a bit harder than getting into NATO: Vastly stricter rule of law and democracy standards, on top of that trade integration, economics and everything.
OTOH the EU is also not above creating new ad-hoc treaty structures with unimaginative names so a... DCENSV, "Deep and Comprehensive European Neighbourhood Security Vehicle" is absolutely within the realm of possibilities. People are basically waiting for Trump to move while preparing responses for every scenario, very little if any of this kind of preparation will reach the public eye.