Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said Thursday he is "thinking seriously" about dropping his affiliation with the Democratic Party and becoming an independent.
Why it matters: Manchin has made a career out of proclaiming his independence from D.C. Democrats. But his latest comments have added significance, given his public flirtation with a possible third party presidential bid in 2024.
What he's saying: "I'm thinking seriously," Manchin told West Virginia radio host Hoppy Kercheval, adding, "I have to have peace of mind, basically. The brand has become so bad. The D brand and R brand ... You've heard me say a million times, I am not a Washington Democrat."
- Pressed on how seriously he is approaching the idea, Manchin said he has "been thinking about that for quite some time" and wants to "make sure that my voice is truly an independent voice."
- Manchin said he hasn't "made any decisions," telling Kercheval, "When I get ready to make a decision, I'll come see you."
The backdrop: Manchin has been dropping hints for months that he may follow the lead of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), who announced her switch to independent in December but still caucuses with Democrats.
- Asked about becoming an independent later that month during a CBS News interview, Manchin said, "I'll let you know later what I decide to do, but right now I have no intention of changing anything."
- There were rumors as far back as 2021 that Manchin may bolt the party – though he dismissed them then as "bull****."
What we're watching: Manchin faces an uphill reelection battle in a state that voted for former President Trump by nearly 40 percentage points in 2020. The frontrunner in the GOP primary for his seat is popular Gov. Jim Justice.
- Manchin has spent the last year distancing himself from President Biden and fellow Democrats, repudiating parts of the Inflation Reduction Act and even threatening to oppose Biden's Environmental Protection Agency nominees.
- He may also decide to go another way. He headlined a New Hampshire town hall last month hosted by No Labels, a centrist group that is laying the groundwork for a potential third party presidential ticket.
I don’t see how he’s a good bet to win. He’s 22 points behind his republican opponent, Jim Justoce. Manchin is polling at 32% to Justice’s 54. If he runs an an I, his support drops by half to 16%. I don’t see how his seat doesn’t flip anyway.
2024 is expected to be a loss for the Dems. The money is better spent on the winnable seats with Texas of all places being a possible flip. If 2024 goes like 2022 did, it’s a possibility. The Rs hung the abortion albatross around their own neck.
I honestly don't trust polls this far out. Not because of anything wrong with the polling itself, but because it's just so far away. Justice looks like he'll be the Republican nominee, but he still has to win the primary. That isn't a given, with how crazy Republicans have gotten and how willing they are to shoot themselves in the foot. They could very well nominate a far right loon and make Manchin the favorite.
I never would've expected 2022 to be a stalemate back in January '22, but it happened. Since then Democrats have won an off year state supreme court seat in Wisconsin by +10%, and Republicans in Ohio saw their ballot measure fail badly. There's considerable momentum against the GOP, and the winds don't appear to be changing direction. I expect the House GOP to collapse into civil war after they fail to pass an agriculture bill in September.
I don't disagree with shifting funding to more winnable races, but I think we need to wait longer to have an accurate picture of which races are winnable.