this post was submitted on 11 Aug 2023
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It’s an older article, but the point stands!

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[–] Nougat@kbin.social 31 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (14 children)

Before I make this statement, yeah, I know where I am.

Deaths per billion passenger-miles

All of these fatality rates, for all of these forms of transportation, are vanishingly small. Comparing the rates of one vehicle to another with phrases like "17 times more likely" while ignoring the "billion passenger-miles" scale is misleading.

In order to present these in a more complete way, the odds of dying on each of these vehicles is:

  • Motorcycle: 0.000000213
  • Car: 0.0000000073
  • Ferry: 0.0000000032
  • Amtrak: 0.00000000043
  • Airplane: 0.00000000007
[–] HumbertTetere@feddit.de 46 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (8 children)

That is per mile, which is usually not the distance humans limit themselves to in their lives. Assuming you travel a million miles in your life, you do have a 20% chance of dying if exclusively using a motorcycle, which I would consider relevant. The change from car to train already far less so.

[–] Nougat@kbin.social 23 points 1 year ago (7 children)

Fair and excellent points.

Assuming 20,000 miles traveled per year, it would take 50 years to reach 1,000,000 miles. So let's lay out the % odds of fatality over 50 years, at 20,000 miles per year, if using each of these means exclusively:

  • Motorcycle: 21.3%
  • Car: 7.3%
  • Ferry 3.2%
  • Amtrak: 0.43%
  • Airplane: 0.07%

You're also getting at another important point: it is difficult for people to really comprehend very large or very small numbers. With that in mind, if we divide each of those percentages by 50, we should come up with the odds of dying in a given vehicle per year, again, given a 20,000 mile per year usage and exclusive use of one vehicle type:

  • Motorcycle: 0.426%
  • Car: 0.146%
  • Ferry: 0.064%
  • Amtrak: 0.0086%
  • Airplane: 0.0014%

Of these, only motorcycle and car are anywhere near significant, and they're still really unlikely. The remaining three still are small enough to be essentially incomprehenisble. (And who travels 20,000 miles a year on a ferry, anyway?)

Another bit I would like to note is that the comparison posed was between car and train, based on safety. Why was airplane not mentioned? It's far and away the least likely to kill you.

Of course airplane wasn't mentioned. Airplanes are not appropriate solutions to many kinds of necessary travel, and airplanes in general have a worse reputation for their environmental effects. Trains are not solutions to many kinds of necessary travel, either, at least not in the current landscape of travel options available to very many people in the United States.

Again, I know exactly where I'm commenting. I definitely think that there should be way more public transportation options available. I think the number of individual-operated vehicle miles can and should be reduced. I think the kinds of individual-operated vehicles should be addressed more sensibly (we don't get to have the small pickups of the 80s and 90s because of unintended consequences of CAFE standards driving manufacturers to create larger and larger "light" trucks, for example).

Pointing out that "cars are 17 times more likely to kill you than trains!" does not serve the purpose of making a better world through transportation reform.

[–] VolatileExhaustPipe@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

and they’re still really unlikely

1 in 1000 is not really unlikely if it is in regards to your life ending.

However even taking your number it would lead to devastating pictures.

2 married people with 4 grandparents 1 aunt 3 friends and 3 kids means every year 22+-5 out of a small 1000 family neighbourhood will be affected by car deaths.

Assuming that a relevant time period is from the birth of a child till it is 30 and therefore might have had a child of their own, so 30 years we get that around 66%+-10% of families will be affected. Instead of only 1-3 families during that time.

You did not lift the veil of ignorance, you created a new veil of diffusion.

It would mean that two out of three families would lose a close person within a 30 year generation due to cars, instead of only a small percentage. This is the power of the 17 times!

The alternative of train rides would mean that within a generation virtually no family is affected by car deaths.

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