In 2018, Chinese specialists published a white paper showing how the Arctic waterways could be blended into the biggest trade project in world history: the Belt and Road Initiative. The arctic route was dubbed the “Polar Silk Road”.

Since then, the Chinese have been working quietly towards exploring this option with its neighbours in the colder parts of the world, Russia being the big one – literally and figuratively.

In November last year, China said that it had reached consensus with Russia on the aims of a joint committee on co-operation on a northern sea route for shipping trade. Co-operative work will make the area good for trade, good for safety, and good for learning more about the technology needed for polar exploration, China's new Transport Minister Liu Wei said at the time.

BYPASSING THE TROUBLE ZONES

Since then, other advantages of having a trade route through the cold north have emerged.

First, ships can bypass the Suez Canal in the Middle East, where Washington-backed Israel is actively engaged in battle with numerous neighbours, causing massive disruption to sea trade.

Second, ships can avoid Panama, which has been invaded by the US at least twice, and may receive another unwelcome "visit" from the north, judging by recent statements from the incoming US President.

A third factor is climate change. While there may be disputes about exactly how much they will effect waterside property prices on the Florida seafront, there is general agreement that the rapid melting of ice at the poles in recent years is not going to stop. The topology is set to change. And how can you respond to those changes without having people there?

A related fourth element is minerals – with treasures known and unknown in the cold climes, waiting to be dug up. The focus is on the likelihood of shifting ice patterns allowing access to unmined areas.

WHAT NEXT?

The sensible next stage would be for the world's top scientists, from China, Russia, and the west, to work together to monitor changes in Arctic ice thickness, and to jointly work out what's best for the area – as well as creating trade routes if they can be set up without doing harm to the area.

But that's unlikely to happen. The west has invested so much money, time and energy into demonising "the communists" that they will inevitably be drawn to use their standard "threat of war" narrative.

The Russians and Chinese will invade, they'll say, and possibly the Iranians and North Koreans too.

The astonishing success of the "imminent communist invasion" narrative everywhere from Australia to Sweden will embolden the Americans to churn it out again. If you can fool the Scandinavians, you can fool anyone.

Expect that narrative to drop within the next week or two.