this post was submitted on 03 Apr 2025
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What does he know and how terrible is it for common people? ๐คฏ
Well, a good 'smart money' investor ... doesn't tell you their exact reasoning... because then everyone else knows what you know, and you lose your advantage of being able to do something first.
But uh basically, even before the tariffs... pretty much every possible warning sign that exists has been flashing red for years now.
I am not Warren Buffet, but uh... as I see it:
The housing market is now starting to crash.
Consumer debt has exploded, along with delinquencies.
No one is actually hiring, companies just post ghost jobs, fake openings, to look like they are rapidly growing when they aren't.
Many, many companies have been actually laying people off in the 10s of thousands.
The stock market is wildly overvalued and based on speculation, very far away from fundamentals, from reasonable pricing.
The bond yield curve has now inverted and univerted twice without yet a massive economic downturn.
In the history of basically all modern economics, last 200 years, any time the bond yield curve inverts, the economy crashes when it uninverts.
... I could go on.
So he basically said "this shit ain't right" and chose to pull out money from stocks even though cash loses value to inflation if sat idle?
You got it.
When people with a lot of investments, who are not otherwise facing some immediate cost... literally cash them out, and hold cash, as Buffet has done /is doing...
That means he is betting the losses from inflation will be less than the losses from those other investments tanking.
That means Buffet is roughly predicting something like a -2 or -3 % (or worse) Q1 25 GDP 'growth'... ie, general economic decline.