Canada

I think an election sooner is likely.

I don't see the government falling in less than a year. Maybe after 2, but probably longer unless something dramatic happens.

• The NDP can't afford to fight an election any time soon, they need a new leader and they need to re-energize their supporters.

• The Bloc has a common cause with the federal government until the Trump threat is neutralized (and they're even more angry about their sovereignty being actively threatened than most Canadians). And the housing program that Carney speaks about would benefit all provinces, including Quebec.

• The Conservatives need to turf PP and replace him, which he will fight against. That's going to take some time, and if Carney is doing a good job while they're busy with that, it'll be even harder for their new leader to credibly justify bringing down the government..

• And finally, the public has no appetite for going back into an election unless Carney screws up badly. And any competent political strategist from any party should be able to recognize that.