this post was submitted on 05 May 2025
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Trouble with measuring crossings is it picks up an aggregate of things; Canadians crossing for leisure, for business, Americans crossing for leisure and work, medical tourism (Americans coming for insulin, my uncle driving to Mexico for dental care, etc.), foreigners on a road trip, people driving between Canada and Mexico, etc. Most of these are round trips too; you're going to be measured coming in and then out (so you're part of both statistics).
This sets aside people who already had non-refundable bookings from a year ago; Disney essentially let us cancel our Florida trip once they confirmed our French reservation at Disney there; sure, it's still money going to Disney, but at least a lot of that money is being divested into the French market instead.
My friends who weren't able to cancel made a point of limiting their spending while they were there still. And then there were a couple who just didn't care as well.
Ultimately, the metrics (and their sustained impacts) will be an aggregate of many things, and eventually Canadian fatigue as well.
While true, quite a few provinces have massively reduced traffic at the border. Ontario's the lowest at 40% reduction, but some provinces are as high as 80%.
Of course, that doesn't include air since the most uncancellable trips are those done by air, but unlike air traffic, ground traffic is a greater combination of Canadian and American traffic, while I think air is more purely Canadians going to the US, with US business in Canada making up a smaller portion.
An 80% drop in traffic is even worse than it sounds when you realize that there's a ton of Americans coming over to grab cheap medicine and other small things that won't change much just because of all the Tariff stuff that's going on.