this post was submitted on 05 May 2025
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Image is the famous photograph Raising a Flag Over the Reichstag, taken during the Battle of Berlin.
On Friday is May 9th, which is the 80th anniversary of Victory Day, which Russia, among other places, celebrates as the day when the Soviets defeated the Nazis. Naturally, one of the current hotspots of fascism in the world today, Ukraine, is essentially threatening that they might strike Russia or even Moscow itself during that timeframe. Any such strike would almost certainly be symbolic and not aimed at anything too important, as I doubt even Zelensky and his American handlers would actually want to kill a world leader, not least somebody like Xi Jinping. But I would not be surprised if they tried something nonetheless, if only to disrupt the event in some way and not actually kill anybody.
And, as we're on this topic, @EllenKelly@hexbear.net has reminded me that Tuesday is the anniversary of the Nazis burning the Institut für Sexualwissenschaf in 1933, an early institute advocating for the rights of LGBT people, and which also provided early forms of gender-affirming surgeries, as well as hormone therapies. We are currently seeing a crackdown on LGBT rights throughout swathes of the imperial core (as well as countries in the periphery, to the extent that those rights existed there already), and this Nazi-inspired movement will be similarly defeated in the future.
Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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Three fighter jets crashed in India's Jammu and Kashmir, local govt sources say - Reuters
Update: another crash site confirmed by Indian media in Punjab, India has lost at least four aircraft...
So India actually did lose three fighter jets in beyond visual range combat, shot down by Pakistan using Chinese PL-15 air to air missiles or the Chinese HQ-9 air defence system (Pakistan claims these systems were used). Included in the article is debris from a French aircraft, either a Rafale or Mirage 2000. Could be a drop tank, but there's more evidence of one of these French aircraft being shot down. Chinese hardware proving itself in combat against European aircraft. Pakistan do have more AWACS aircraft than India and more fighter aircraft with AESA radars, which could explain the initial advantage. See first, shoot first.
This is incredibly embarrassing for India, they lost at least three aircraft while carrying out stand off strikes with all the launches of air launched ballistic missiles and cruise missiles taking place well within Indian airspace, with all the targets close to the border. This is designed in every way to be a low risk operation. How in the world did they lose three fighter jets! Do they not train? Did they not target air defences? The maximum range of the PL-15 and HQ-9B systems is estimated at 250-300km, and Indian stand off weapons like the Rudram-II have a range of 350km, ROCKS/Crystal Maze 2 has a max range of 250-300km. Surely you just fire and retreat? This should not have happened.
The French are probably regretting selling advanced fighter jets to India now. China will definitely be pleased by the performance of their systems though.
The stock market of all things has reacted to this news. Chengdu, the Chinese company who manufacture and designed the JF-17 and J-10C aircraft in use by Pakistan, has had it's stock price go up by 20%. China having some war profiteering. Expect stocks in Dassault Aviation, the French company that manufactures and designed the Mirage-2000 and Rafale aircraft used by India, to go down.
I wonder if this will impact Iran's airforce modernization program. S-35s are much slower to delivery than JF-10/JF-17 models, and the latter are clearly equipped for the kind of engagements Iran expects in the coming years.
These were 4th gen jets right? Does India or Pakistan have newer generation fighters?
I was not expecting Kashmir to pop off. Maybe a bit tinfoil hat but the whole “little known militant group provokes regional conflict by random act of terrorism” stinks of CIA/western provocation to me
Hey, check out this Nature article from 2022 that says a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would effectively reverse the ocean temperature and global temperature effects of climate change without majorly impacting caloric availability for rich people in the West. The lower yield version minimally effects the West, and the higher yield version of India-Pakistan is only safe in Australia and New Zealand.
The flip side is that the Indian subcontinent is subject to incredible and unique pressure due to climate change, and India and Pakistan have despised each other for decades. Pakistan has a nuclear first-strike doctrine because they think it’s the only thing that can protect Lahore (11 million people, 10 kilometers from the Indian border). The USAmerican retreat from global affairs towards the Western Hemisphere and Pacific (alleged for decades, kinda happening now) will free up regional powers. It makes sense that the first place to see this go hot is a place that hasn’t been directly pushed down by USAmerica. It’s basically impossible to say if the agency is involved with this specific terrorist attack, but the recent coup in Bangladesh suggests they’re in the region
Man, the off-the-charts ghoulery it would take to see "2 billion people would die" and ask oneself "but is it the wrong 2 billion people, though?" Still wouldn't put it past our delightful and definitely not alien-lizard-staffed intelligence agencies, though.
South America is also okay in the high (47 teragrams of soot) scenario - nukes in the northern hemisphere, impacts in the northern hemisphere
That's a no trade scenario and just models current production
Interesting to learn about the effect on climate change. I had thought this was likely a provocation to start an essentially proxy war with China who has always sided with Pakistan
All 4th generation or 4.5 generation on both sides. So with both sides lacking 5th generation stealth aircraft and lacking the ability to shut down ground based air defences, high losses are expected. But Pakistan does have the advantage in AWACS aircraft numbers, and fighter aircraft equipped with AESA radars (all Chinese J-10C, and JF-17 block 2B and 3 aircraft in Pakistan's possession have AESA radars, block 2B aircraft were apparently retrofitted). Modern beyond visual range air to air combat is very much a case of whoever sees the enemy first, gets to shoot first and win. But Indian aircraft, even escorts, should have not been in position to be shot down. It looks like Pakistan was able to observe their movements better and catch them off guard, even though India was the one attacking.
Sounds like poor operation planning at the very least then by India. Thanks for the info and for all your posts, very informative as always