this post was submitted on 06 Jul 2023
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I think there may have been a slight misunderstanding here. I don't see Threads as bringing people to the wider fediverse, and so I don't see it as necessarily threatening to it or ActivityPub. The concern many have been understandably expressing is that Threads will openly federate to gather even more data on people to sell to advertisers, but for one, they already have billions of people on their platforms and many that are here probably were on there at one time or still know others that remain on their platforms, making the fediverse a drop in the bucket for them.
For two, they're beholden to advertisers, so it honestly doesn't make sense to openly federate with other sites/instances. After all, many folks around here are here because their kind of content didn't jive with advertisers. Meta could try to wave that away as not being from their users, but if they're showing ads next to federated posts of stuff advertisers don't like, that's probably not gonna fly. Given this, I think Meta's more likely to only federate with a select few instances that either they "buy out" (i.e. pay for access, & in return admins/mods start basically enforcing Meta's rules/guidelines to continue to be paid) or otherwise recognize as "advertiser friendly".
Folks that don't wanna put up with that will simply leave those instances for the same reasons they left corporate social media to begin with. After all, if you're not on Meta's platforms, why would you ever want to be on a front for Meta?