this post was submitted on 16 Oct 2023
783 points (98.0% liked)
Asklemmy
43901 readers
1110 users here now
A loosely moderated place to ask open-ended questions
If your post meets the following criteria, it's welcome here!
- Open-ended question
- Not offensive: at this point, we do not have the bandwidth to moderate overtly political discussions. Assume best intent and be excellent to each other.
- Not regarding using or support for Lemmy: context, see the list of support communities and tools for finding communities below
- Not ad nauseam inducing: please make sure it is a question that would be new to most members
- An actual topic of discussion
Looking for support?
Looking for a community?
- Lemmyverse: community search
- sub.rehab: maps old subreddits to fediverse options, marks official as such
- !lemmy411@lemmy.ca: a community for finding communities
~Icon~ ~by~ ~@Double_A@discuss.tchncs.de~
founded 5 years ago
MODERATORS
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
People say that's just the true odds but I really don't think that's the case. Even if I use the c++ old and flawed Rand function, rolling 2d10 almost always gives me at least one roll above 2. So in 2 shots at least one should hit. Even in the newest xcom I remember rolling 6 shots with 90% and missing all of them. 8 feel like XCOM has something broken or influencing it outside of percentage.
Yeah those odds-beating misses at least felt like they happened way too often, and I'm pretty sure the percentage really wasn't a "raw" probability but that there was some other fuckery also involved.
Sure, it's definitely statistically possible to miss a few 90% shots in a row, but eg. there's a 0.0001% chance of missing 6 in a row at 90% – and it's not like shit like that only happened once on a blue moon in XCOM
The internet is also littered with these types of studies: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/191291-xcom-2/79589841 where someone went through and calculated up some scores and hit well below the standard deviation for shots.