The Ukrainian situation is Russia demonstrating that the US cannot mask its activities as defensive anymore. It did this by calling the bluff and attacking, and so far the bluff has been called. The US attempted to activate sleeper cells in the caucauses and in Iran to open up additional fronts. They failed. Then Russia activated sleeper cells in Africa and more fronts against the West opened up.

While all this is happening, China is playing the US soft power game and making connections where the US operates - Saudi Arabia, Colombia, other South American countries, a bunch of African countries. And in Taiwan they are allowing the US propaganda machine to demonstrate how violent it is while showing China as the more responsible state, inexorably drawing Taiwan closer and closer.

China is also playing the sanctions games and demonstrating not only that its production is unstoppable at all levels of technology, but also that it has the power and willingness to starve key foreign industries without hurting anyone in the foreign gen pop.

In theory this could all be part of a Western strategy, and if it was we should look at what that would mean. First, the US failed to achieve its objectives in Afghanistan and Vietnam. That should show us what failure looks like. Second, the US successfully destroyed Libya, Iraq, Syria, and Yugoslavia, and successfully devastated North Korea but failed to destroy it.

What would the state of play look like if the West was winning right now?

First, Iran would be having a revolution. Second, Russia would be fighting on multiple fronts. Third, the Belt and Road would be getting sabotaged and countries would be backing out of agreements and not signing new ones. Fourth, the Saudi Royal Family, which is under the aegis of the US for decades, would be snubbing China. Fifth, Xinjiang terrorist attacks would be increasing or at least not decreasing.

There's just no evidence that the West is in control of the situation. Programs, like East Turkestan separatism, that they have invested in for decades are in decline. Arms superiority assumptions are not bearing out against goat farmers nor against low-tier Russian forces. Spy networks are not functioning where they need them to function. Dozens of world leaders demonstrably feel less compulsion to support the West rhetorically and symbolically.