this post was submitted on 28 Oct 2023
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I agree on the time line.
RISCV has to completely slaughter ARM in the uC and SBC arenas before it can be a serious contender for the desktop market.
Basically, RISCV’s selling point is that it’s royalty free. Anyone can implement it without paying anything to anyone, no NDA’s nothing. In the uC market, where chips cost a fraction of a dollar in quantity and margins are practically non existent, not paying the ARM tax makes a HUGE difference.
Once they take over the uC market, it can move up, leveraging the experience the experience of being the world most popular core into more beefy SoCs. This is your raspberry pi equivalents and your budget phones.
From there, you can add performance features and move up to tablets, flagship phones and low power laptops. And then, eventually, performance laptops, desktop machines and servers.
This will take at least a decade.