this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2023
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Well that was... weird.
I saw several alleged videos of russian frontline units pledging their support for Prigozhin. Combine that with how little resistance wagner faced and Putin might have realized how weak his position is and given in to replacing MOD staff. Not a good look the same day he declared Prigozhin a traitor and promised punishment.
Trading the long-term stability for the short-term. Because now every aspiring russian warlord know that if you don't like something about the state, all you need is just a big enough private army to bully the kremlin, lol.
I don't know why anyone is taking any of this seriously. For all we know, this was done to lure Ukraine into following them into Russia to fall into a set trap, or theater or withdraw and resupply without looking weak. It is odd that it looks like Putin had weakness, but they can always say that's what it was later and the propaganda will work like it always does.
Do you really think Ukraine has an interest in following them into Russia? If I was them I would just want to take back Ukraine and secure the borders.
They don't. But Putin in his own disinformation bubble may think so.
They currently have an operation attacking into Russia's boarder...
Only if you accept Russia's description of where the border is. The border as defined by every other country in the entire world says Ukraine is still in their own territory.
There have been some Ukrainian sympathisers setting off bombs/shooting down aircraft/etc inside Russian territory - but those aren't Ukranian soldiers and they're pretty generally just a few random/nonconsequential attacks and don't show any signs of being linked to any "Operation". The front line of the battlefield is nowhere near the border.
No, it's documented and reported by Ukraine and US as they counterattacked on Russian soil and it was an issue because of the US supplying weapons to them: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/05/29/an-increasing-number-of-ukrainian-attacks-on-russian-soil-are-upsetting-the-united-states-and-kyiv-s-allies_6028312_4.html
It would be weird to shoot down friendly helicopters and launch cruise missiles at friendly formations just to make a big feint.
Ukraine just needs to take the land bridge to Crimea, I don't see they have any incentive to go inwards towards Russia.
Well, it would certainly be a massive moral blow to Russia if Ukraine just up and freed Crimea. The bigger challenge would be installing a leader that isn't going to turn around and give the country back to Putin.
Do we know for certain that any of that happened though? Because I haven't seen any video of actual engagement between Wagner and Russia.
Well, here's some footage with a shot down C&C plane. I mean it still could be not Wagner, but it would be an awful coincidence.
I mean we still don't know shit beyond the fact that Ukraine is holding strong and slowly reclaiming territory. The thing about this story is that it shows that the Russians are divided, and that's not a picture you want to show in a war, especially to your people. These events are costing the Russians dearly in one way or another.
I think you watch to many movies real life isn't that well planned most likely he got mad launched an ill planned invasion then made a deal with putin when both realized they could lose everything fighting each other