this post was submitted on 10 Jul 2023
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One of the clearest takeaways from the Ukraine conflict is how little the Russian MOD will regard civilian protections. We've also seen the same thing with the PLA. War is an extension of politics. If they can use tools to disrupt civilian life and logistics, they will if it means delaying a military response on the Taiwanese island by weeks. That is their goal. Using information warfare also makes it more likely that they can disrupt us enough without attacking our military. This makes an attack on Taiwan more likely, not less.
In terms of an actual threat, I detailed several ways that they can use the data to develop models of behavior and highly individualize it. It is combining the models and access with traditional and recently developed propaganda techniques that effects can be coordinated. Think of it more like traditional cyber warfare but much more effective and about combining individual actions. One person flushing a toilet does not do much but a whole town at the same time can create an issue.
Additionally, civilians are allowed on military bases. We are not in the habit of banning phone software at gate entries. There's no way to keep it out realistically speaking. Children have phones at home and largely follow their parents. With that level of data access and a 40+% marketshare, there is no escaping a CCP sensor at any given point now when you go out in public. It really does not take that much data to develop an information model and the more data we give them, the more accurate they will be.
That is just the short-term uses of the data. China now has data to use against future people with security clearances, politicians, and industry leadership that will aid their intelligence services for generations.
You're retreading ground weve covered but keep mentioning an "information model" bogeyman that you have not yet clarified as a threat.
Our difference of opinion is due to me not seeing that as a credible threat. Can you address that specifically?
I cannot go into too much detail on a public forum but it makes traditional cyber warfare and information warfare much more effective and targeted. Machine Learning models can identify exactly the types of information, true or not, that are more likely to radicalize you and incite action at the intended moment. It takes the conversation from demographics to individualized and targeted propaganda. It then can be used to predict outcomes and effects based on location data, provide real-time feedback, and ensure that all of the individualized effects happen at the exact moment you need them to. For a real-world example that was not an attack, look at the 2014 Atlanta snowstorm. Individually, all of the problems were solvable. When the effects were combined at the same time, you had a complete collapse of public services and society for days.
These models are not possible with only API access.
You quite simply are not going to get a specific answer on this because it would reveal methods and techniques.
People have a right to consume propaganda if they like, though. I'm not sure how this is a unique threat.
If people are susceptible to propaganda, by problem is with the people, not the service providers