All predictions are probabilistic.

AI indeed isn't great at modeling complex or difficult to quantify phenomenon, but neither are people.

Our recent logistical issues are much more based on the frailty of just in time supplying than the methods we use to gauge demand. Most of those methods aren't what would typically be called AI, since the system isn't learning so much as it's drawing a line on a graph.

We didn't actually run out of toilet paper, people just thought we did and so would buy all of it if they saw it in the shelves. It's a relatively local good, so it didn't usually get caught up in the issues with shipping getting bogged down, it's just that people chose to override the model that said that stores should buy five trucks full of TP because it would fill their warehouse and they were worried they'd be stuck with the backlog.