this post was submitted on 04 Dec 2023
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NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday.

Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide.

Such predictions imply the belief that the Federal Reserve can pull off the delicate balancing act of slowing the economy just enough through high interest rates to get inflation under control, without snuffing out its growth completely.

High rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. The combination typically slows spending and starves inflation of its fuel. So far, the job market has remained remarkably solid despite high interest rates, and the unemployment rate sat at a low 3.9% in October.

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[–] afraid_of_zombies@lemmy.world 19 points 1 year ago (3 children)

Every economists was predicting recession a few months back. They have an accuracy rate less than horoscopes

[–] wildginger@lemmy.myserv.one 9 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Tbf, the act of predicting a recession can change the outcome, since the economy is just people reacting to things with money.

If everyone is expecting their houses to fall down from thin walls, so they start adding panels to their walls, suddenly the newly sturdy walls arent falling down anymore.

[–] afraid_of_zombies@lemmy.world -2 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Right except people aren't lemmings. Just because I hear some talking head say how he thinks there will be a recession in a month doesn't mean I cut all spending.

[–] PreviouslyAmused@lemmy.ml 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

An individual is not a lemming, no. But people? People are scared, stupid, lemmings who will follow the crowd, almost every time.

We’re social creatures, designed to work in groups. The downside (or upside I guess) is that people do follow the crowd.

[–] afraid_of_zombies@lemmy.world 0 points 1 year ago

If people followed the crowd vaccination rates would be 100%. Remind me again what they really are. People, real freaken people, make bad decisions, they don't listen to experts, they expert shop, they go against the grain, they go against what they are told they should do. They are brave, cowardly, stupid, smart, ruthless, and nice.

This is why economist is bull crap. They build these models assuming the very worst about humanity and demand we all act that way. So of course if your base assumption is that humans blindly trust anyone who calls themselves an expert and can only think short term they would sell everything if they hear a whisper of recession.

I look at the numbers for investing not what some moron on TV shooting stuff has to say.

https://youtu.be/gUkbdjetlY8?si=zaw0AV3QvbN6PXYv

Remember this? Nah bet you don't.

[–] wildginger@lemmy.myserv.one 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

...... What? Did you click on the wrong comment?

[–] afraid_of_zombies@lemmy.world 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)
[–] wildginger@lemmy.myserv.one 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

You wanna try your comment again, then, and make it relevant to the comment youre clicking on?

Or was the comment being gibberish intentional?

[–] afraid_of_zombies@lemmy.world 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I don't see what is confusing. You made the claim that the act of predicting a recession can cause a recession and stated a mechanism. I pointed out that predictions of recessions are rarely accurate and the mechanism doesnt work the way you described.

[–] wildginger@lemmy.myserv.one 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Yeah, see, this is why I think you clicked on the wrong comment.

I said that an economy is a result of humans acting, and that the act of stating a recession is coming is enough to change peoples actions to either cause or prevent a recession.

You then launched into some unrelated nonsense about being lemmings.

Do you need help finding the comment you meant to respond to?

[–] afraid_of_zombies@lemmy.world 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Again. You can't just declare or undeclare a recession

[–] wildginger@lemmy.myserv.one 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

You really struggle with reading, eh sport? Not one for grasping words?

Do you wanna try responding to things Ive said? Isntead of whatever that ghost in your head is whispering to you?

[–] afraid_of_zombies@lemmy.world 0 points 1 year ago (1 children)
[–] wildginger@lemmy.myserv.one 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Im sure you are sweetheart, but I can help you find the person you thought you were talking to if you need. That, or your chaperone?

[–] afraid_of_zombies@lemmy.world 0 points 1 year ago (1 children)
[–] wildginger@lemmy.myserv.one 2 points 1 year ago

The irony

Good luck dude

[–] EatATaco@lemm.ee 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

This isn't even remotely true, why is it being upvoted?

[–] afraid_of_zombies@lemmy.world 4 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Maybe because it is true and no one wants to hear government economists bullshit about how everything is fine when everything is not fucking fine.

So sick of economist lying crap. Telling us we can't have universal healthcare and we can't get rid of student loan debt but we have to give free money to banks and trade with countries that have slavery.

[–] EatATaco@lemm.ee 3 points 1 year ago (1 children)

But it's simply untrue.

Here is goldman sachs saying, over a year ago, that a path to a soft landing is hard but feasible. Here is an economist, from over a year ago, predicting that the chance of a soft landing was going up. Here are 3 economists writing for the Harvard business reviewing saying, back in Februrary, that the chances of a soft landing were good and calls for a recession were premature.

The whole point of the fed's policy on the rates was to tamp down on inflation while at the same time avoiding a recession. They are, of course, economists. At this point we look like we have good odds to pull of what they were intending to pull off.

I don't know where you get your information from, but if you thought no one thought was predicting a soft landing until a few months ago, well it's safe to say you don't really pay much attention to these things because plenty of economists have been predicting it likely, or going to happen, even for a long time. I've only heard a handful of economists even come close to virtually assuring a recession.

[–] afraid_of_zombies@lemmy.world 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

A thousand psychics making predictions every day and one being correct proves nothing.

[–] EatATaco@lemm.ee 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

A thousand psychics making predictions every day and one being correct proves nothing.

Untrue, as it proves, without a doubt proves that:

Every economists was predicting recession a few months back.

is untrue.

This is the advantage of basing your opinions off the facts, tas he facts actually support your claims.

[–] afraid_of_zombies@lemmy.world 0 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Can't hear you over the sound of thousand of government economists saying everything is fine

[–] EatATaco@lemm.ee 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

The fed is a government economist, at least in some regard, so even that claim falls pretty empty.

But notice how I was able to back up my claims with facts, you just moved the goal posts, without admitting fault, to a new unsupported claim.

You're not clever, you're a joke.

[–] afraid_of_zombies@lemmy.world 0 points 1 year ago (1 children)
[–] EatATaco@lemm.ee 1 points 1 year ago

Blocking when you can't defend the point. Sticking your fingers in your ears like a toddler, instead of simply learning.

[–] Pickle_Jr@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

Any witches I can follow on Mastodon who provide stock analysis???

[–] afraid_of_zombies@lemmy.world 2 points 1 year ago

No idea. Just buy and hold index funds and you will be fine.