this post was submitted on 14 Dec 2023
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Death to NATO
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I expect Europe is very much getting fucked here. I also get the impression that once project Ukraine collapses, then US is planning to refocus on trying to start shit with China. And this is really what these types of articles are laying the ground for. I bet the narrative is going to be that US can't lose Taiwan like Ukraine, so there has to be unlimited military support for it.
Most likely. The difference is that China's government isn't reactionary like Russia's government, so they won't fall for the US's obvious traps. The only way the US can really escalate things in the region is if they cross China's red line, which even their most hardcore allies will find hard to justify (not to mention, it would need to be done without the approval of the people of Taiwan, who wouldn't want to be pulled into a major war with with the mainland)
I guess it'll come down to them either assuming they can handle Taiwan exactly like Ukraine (and fail) or act like China is exactly the same as it was 30 years ago (and fail) I can't see them pressing this issue any other way, because if they did, they wouldn't be pressing it at all.
I'm not really seeing a good strategy for US here as well. China realizes that time is ultimately on their side. In the long run, it's almost certain that reunification will happen peacefully. As you point out, the only scenario where China would react militarily is US crossing China's red lines which will be politically difficult to do. I think the other aspect people tend to forget is all the ways China can retaliate economically against the US.
Would be awkward for the US to start a war with China only for China to cut off the vast majority of US supply chains. Only reason they haven't attacked China so far, they can't actually decouple their economy, despite their best efforts. Capitalism sows the seeds of its own destruction.
Exactly, if there was an actual war between US and China then US economy would collapse overnight. They've been yammering about decoupling for years now, but the reality is that there's no path towards it. What's worse from US perspective is that countries they might realistically move production to are becoming increasingly hostile towards the US as well.
What countries that the U.S. wants to turn to but are becoming hostile to it are? I know that Amerikkkan politicians for decades have talked of moving production out of China into places like India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, but what countries specifically and what recent developments? I'd love to do some reading.
India and Mexico are the two big ones. US has been trying to position India as a counterbalance to China for a while, but now the relations between US and India are quickly starting to deteriorate. One big driver of that has been US trying to pressure India to stop trade with Russia which infuriated India. Recently US and Canada were trying to put political pressure on India by making public accusations of India carrying out assassinations on Canadian and US soil. India has reacted to this as negatively as you'd expect.
Meanwhile, AMLO has been very critical of US while further strengthening relations with China. US politicians have now even started making noises about US having to go to Mexico to "fight cartels".
Let's hope this trend continues
India did do those assassinations, but yeah the US and Canada wouldn't have made a stink if they didn't want something out of it
Right, and lots of countries do these kinds of assassinations all the time. The only time it's brought up in public fashion this way is for political pressure.
As excited as I want to be, I advise extreme caution. The Amerikkkan Empire is great at playing the long game, even if not to the same extent as China and Russia. The U.S. is like a fucking cockroach (and that's an insult to cockroaches) that just won't fucking die up until you set your house on fire. A seemingly wounded gazelle is still extremely dangerous.
Dying empires do have a very nasty habit of getting embroiled in huge, long devastating wars, you're absolutely right.