this post was submitted on 29 Dec 2023
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Science Memes

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[–] nova_ad_vitum@lemmy.ca 40 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (2 children)

There's various technicalities of how and where Beyesian statistics apply to the world but I really interpreted it as meaning "if the world is ending then it doesn't matter and if not then I'm up $50". The Beyesian is just ruthlessly practical.

[–] kogasa@programming.dev 23 points 10 months ago

That is definitely not the joke. The joke is that the frequentist approach gives you a clearly nonsensical conclusion, because the prior probability of the sun exploding is extremely small.

[–] callyral@pawb.social 1 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

Not only that, but there's a higher chance of the detector lying than the Sun supernova-ing, so it's probably a false positive. Yes I did just read some paragraphs from 3–4 Wikipedia articles.