Omg that thread was illuminating.

Key points are:

• xmpp was systematically killed by Google by "embrace, enhance, extinguish" where they federated, added bells and whistles, then de-federated after having essentially all users.
• meta systematically removes competition. It is naive to assume anything otherwise, and both meta and the fediverse is international, so governments have less ability to enforce (and enforcement via govs are mostly via the elite and interest groups)
• control over the fediverse can be lost to big tech via updates to protocol that can't be bug fixed fast enough, a fork being run on big instances via a compromised sysadmin selling out for cash or other benefits
• link sharing is about interesting content (not social inertia like messenger apps and social apps like Facebook) so it is not a perfect analogy.
• there is no negativity on the fediverse yet
• once users become the product (even partially), the fediverse will be driven to enshittification via the same pressures of big tech