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this post was submitted on 10 Jan 2024
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I assume that it is too late to launch this summer. Systems are almost always announced at least 1 year in advance while Nintendo has yet to confirm that they have a design done for their next system.
Historically, Nintendo has announced things with that kind of lead time, but as of late, Nintendo has kept announcements much closer to the launch date. The Switch from announcement to launch ( Oct 20-March 3) is 134 days. Today, January 11th, we are 137 days away from Memorial Day (May 27), which is the unofficial start to Summer. The real start, June 21st, is a month after that.
My point is, things are way more open. Nintendo can announce and release the thing very quickly if they want to, and I find that much more likely than the drawn out reveals over 18 months that the Wii and Wii U got.
Technically yes, the Switch was announced less than half a year before release, but Nintendo had been talking about it for much longer. In March 2015, that DeNA was helping them develop online play for an upcoming console codenamed the Nintendo NX. In April 2016, they announced the planned release month for the NX: March 2017. They made a soft announcement for the console two years before release and announced a planned release date almost a year before. Granted, during the Wii U era, Nintendo was probably more open with plans than they would have liked to be to keep up investor confidence.
Nintendo has yet to talk about their plans for their next console. All we have heard is rumors that a Nintendo employee was shown off a prototype in a convention hotel room and that certain major developers have new dev kit.
If you count those investor mentions, then sure, the Switch was announced quite a long time before. In my mind, those were so vague, that calling it an announcement was a stretch.
I guess in my mind, I look at the fact that nearly every tech and media company has been moving toward announcing products closer and closer to the release. You go all in on a big marketing plan, rather than a drawn out one for over a year. I am expecting a similar schedule for Nintendo with this new system.
Of course, Nintendo is still so successful with the Switch as is, I can see them feeling significant freedom in making an announcement whenever they want. As you mentioned, there aren't antsy investors to please right now.