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Israel would have no chance of continueing its escalation with all the neighbouring countries if it wasnt for US military aid. They dont have the capacities to produce that many bombs, missiles, tank and artillery shells.
The US needs Israel to be at perpetual escalation and war to destabilize the Midlle East and prevent the emergence of an unified arab bloc that would be the size of the EU, but control many of the cheap oil ressources and vital trade routes.
Which neighbours is Israel escalating with? Only thing I read is they are returning fire to Hezbollah's 'show-of-sympathy-attacks' and their supply lines from Iran - which is something they have been doing for decades
They have been bombing in Lebanon, Syria and Jordania. They claim to only "retaliate" against Hezbollah, but bombing Beirut, Damascus and Aleppo shows, that they are going beyond just defending themselves against Hezbollah. They try to escalate with Iran, so the US has to commit to all out war in the Middle East. While Biden is still reluctant, many US Elites are heavily advocating for all out war in the Middle East, like it could be seen with the recent dehumanization and call for genocide article in the New York Times.
They have been attacking Iran's weapon supply lines to Hezbollah, as they have been doing for several decades. And to prevent, not cause, escalation, they are never attacking Iran directly.
Neither the strike on Aleppo, nor Damascus nor Beirut were about supply lines. The attacks in Syria were a show of force and to antagonize Iran further, by showing that their forces are vulnerable there too.
Do you think Iran arming Hezbollah and Hamas and installing a network of 'logistical advisors' is de-escalating the conflict?
I'm losing you here.
Hezbollah made clear in the beginning, that they are not interested in a stronger escalation. Your argument was that Hezbollah was supplied through these countries. Are you now claiming Hamas is supplied through them currently? There is about 200km of Israel, including most of the population centers between Lebanon and Gaza.
But to the other point. You seem to imply that escalation is partisan, e.g. there is the "good side" that is not escalating a conflict, when it uses violence and a "bad side" where any action in the conflict is seen as escalation, even actions preceeding violence. But that is not how conflicts work. You could just as easily claim that Iran had to arm these groups to prevent an escalation through deterrence. It would be equally silly.
In the currrent iteration of the conflict Israel is escalating things through attacking places that werent involved before to cause a stronger reaction, after Hezbollah showed in the beginning, that they were only interested in a "show of support" to Hamas but not a further escalation of fights.
If you look further at the motivations and opportunities of the actors, it becomes even more clear. Israel claims that Iran would have orchestrated the attack by Hamas. If that was the case, it would have made more sense for Hezbollah and other Iranian allies to immediately attack on 07. October or right after. Israel was in disarray, and the US didnt increase it's military presence yet. Instead Hezbollah and Iran mostly left it at words, which indicates that Hamas was not acting on their behalf.
If we look at the motivation of Israel, we see a government that is extremely fragile, with a ptime minister charged with multiple crimes, who has failed his people on his only promise of safety and hasno support left in the public. The only thing keeping Netanyahu in power is a continued war. The global sentiment is changing, as Israel is now held responsible for its actions in Gaza at the ICJ and the arguement of "self defense" is less and less accepted with the level of destruction and death in Gaza. Israel needs to escalate tensions in order to stabilize international support.
Well, that's mainly because you're drifting from the initial argument.
You claim that the aim of Israel is to continuously antagonize it's neighbours to keep the conflict 'hot'. Why would it want to do this? Through its actions it's obvious the recent goal of Israel is to a) slowly annex the West Bank and b) move towards normalisation with its neighbours. The latter being especially succesfull with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan. The entire reason Hamas chose to escalate the conflict is because they saw this tactic working: rocket attacks out of Gaza contained; resistance in the West Bank suppressed and slowly taking more and more land; more and more countries accepting the state of Israel; ...
The idea that Israel's goals would be served by escalating into a war with the entire Arab world is absurd. Even if they did have a master plan to conquer the entire Middle East, 9 million Israelis aren't going to get very far. They couldn't even get 20km into Lebanon in 2006 before they had to retreat ffs. Why do you think Israel would ever want to trigger such a war, vs the much more plausible explanation that they are indeed trying to prevent the flow of Iranian weapons to Hezbollah and Hamas?
This is just something Israel says to try and garner support against Iran, comparable to Iran claiming Israel and the US were behind the jan 3 bombings. No-one with a brain believes this, not even the Israeli politicians who say it. But that doesn't change the fact that Hamas was only or mostly able to materially carry out such an attack, and Hezbollah is swimming in munitions to shell Israel with, because of Iranian support.
Isn't it Iran that is escalating the conflict by propping up Hezbollah and Hamas? Why is it a 'regional escalation' when Israel tries to stop it?
Israels goal before 07. October was to slowly annex the West Bank and normalise with the pro US neighbours.
Afterwards the goals shifted, as normalisation will be impossible for the next years, and public opinion is weakening the resolve to support them from the West. Also Netanyahus claim to power, despite his corruption and other criminal activities was always, that he would he the only one to provide safety to the Israelis. He failed on that promise and the only thing jeeping him in power is a continued war.
No answer to the questions then
Which neighbour do you think Bibi is going to invade? Do you think there is popular support for it in Israel?
I believe that they will start annexing south of Lebanon, if it is politically possible. Thats why theyneed an escalation with Hezbollah, to justifiy needing the areas as "security buffer".
Do you think Hezbollah is weaker than in 2006?
I don't know. Hezbollah is certainly stronger than in 2006 in relation to the rest of Lebanon. But i don't know if they are stronger in relation to the IDF. On top there is the question how much support each side would receive.
I think that this is secondary to Netanyahu though. His political survival (and staying out of jail) depends on continuing war. And i think he expects the US, UK and Germany to support Israel no matter what. That is also why now US Elites are drumming up for war and why Iran and allies want the US military out of Iraq and Iraq wants them out to not become a warzone again.
The question will be how much support the US can muster in its population.
Too bad the US power structure is tied to oil, it prevents our economy from shifting away from oil and freeing ourselves from the ME bullshit.
That is simply false. Israel's defense industry is one the world's biggest.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_industry_of_Israel
Israel doesn't need U.S. aid. They just know they can get U.S. aid because they have the U.S. wrapped around their little finger.
It's a great con. Get weapons for free from the U.S. while selling your own.
In your article it states that in 2022 they managed to export 12.5 billion worth of equipment. Elbit Systems, former IMI had a turnover of 5 billion dollars in 2021 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elbit_Systems
In your article it also states that the main exports and focus are aerospace, in particular drones. But for a sustained war they mainly need missiles, artillery and tank shells and bombs. Of course they also need to be able to replace destroyed equipment such as tanks and artilleries. All of these need heavy industries, in particular steel and chemical industry. Israel has been importing iron and steel mainly from Turkey. If Turkey would continue to supply them is uncertain. They cannot manufacture all of the stuff by themselves. Especially as their sites are easily targeted in an upscaled war. The US are currently talking about an 18 billion military aid package. So 150% of the annual arms export rate of Israel.
If Israel goes to war with most of it's neighbours it would be unlikely that countries like Egypt would allow for goods to pass into Israel. So the only way of keeping the war industry supplied would be by the Sea. But Israel doesn't have a navy strong enough to secure the Mediterranian and the Red Sea. There is simply limits, to what a nation of 9 million people can do economically to supply their war machine.
Israel is too small to sustain a war without the US, UK or other big allies sending weapons and materials for weapon production.