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this post was submitted on 06 Feb 2024
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I'm still in complete shock and awe at this. I honestly don't understand how anyone plans to cash in on the AI hype. I see very few practical applications.
When a gold rush happens, the people getting rich are the ones selling shovels. That's what NVIDIA is doing, and it was what they were doing with the crypto gold rush. It makes them a decent short term investment. When AI crashes, they will probably lose some value if they can't find a new technology gold rush. But even when the gold rush ends, AI will be here and be wanted, so NVIDIA has a place, has profit potential. Just like the .com bust of the early 2000s. Most of those companies bankrupted, but it wasn't like we abandoned the Internet.
So, let me tell you about my 1990s investments in Sun Microsystems…
Ha, there are certainly plenty of companies that didn't survive, and it possible someone comes along with eats NVIDIA's lunch. AMD is certainly giving them a run for their money on the graphics side.
Problem is that nvidia has the brand strength now. AMD has to be significantly better than nvidia now to overcome the disadvantage.
AMD knows all too well. By every objective measure their server CPUs are the best right now and Intel still has a bigger market share anyway. Every time you think AMD should have easily grabbed the lions share of the market, they somehow don't. People are stuck in their ways.
On the GPU side, they have to face an even stronger version of this and also have to contend with the reality that nVidia's software stack and game developer partnerships are still stronger than AMD even it AMD GPU is technically strong.
I keep thinking this, but every time AMD seems to get close, Nvidia blows the doors off. There's value to be had, but they just can't compete on performance.
Yeah sorry, Nvidia will definitely crush it but I was speaking more about the companies they're selling to.
They and Microsoft are a smart investment for now. They could end up like a lot of company post COVID bump, but both are old companies that hopefully have the smarts to project and plan to so they don't collapse when the cash stops flowing as well.
I dunno man. I just don't get it. Any of it.
Like there was a Chevy dealer with a ChatGPT chatbot and they had to take it down within days because it was just immediately being abused. It couldn't even answer any simple questions that I asked. It was nothing but a liability.
Many other bots are neutered to the point of being completely useless.
Not to mention the looming issue of whether any of this will even legally be allowed to exist.
I agree that these customer service bots are a poor use of the tech. In the corporate world, it is very useful for both writing and summarizing, that's where Microsoft comes in. Outside of LLMs, though, NVIDIA is well staged for most AI stuff. That's why I say they will outlast the craze. It doesn't matter what the AI is used for, NVIDIA wins. Voice to text, text to voice, sentiment analyses, object and image recognition, anomaly detection. All of which have gotten significantly better in the last few years due to modern AI tech. Hell, even video game up-scaling and ray tracing have both benefited from these technologies.
All of that is to say, the LLMs and image generation stuff has taken all the press and attention, but there are a lot more uses than those two, and clever people are finding new uses constantly.
All of this seems like not super valuable stuff. Especially considering the current state of AI.
The most valuable application I can see is as a sort of "assistant". One that can answer calls, take messages, draft emails, create and add appointments to your calendar, etc. MS is doing it the right way by creating an entire OS around it. But not having a mobile OS will hamstring them considerably.
Google and Apple hold all the cards right now, for that reason. Apple has the on-device processing power. Google has the professional ecosystem.
Hell, Google's Messages spam filter is the only reason I still have a Google account.
But again, I'm still not confident these things are as valuable as the attention they receive makes them out to be.
My wife needed help with an Excel VBA script. I know programming but not VBA. I spent hours searching with Google to find a script that I could adapt. I gave up and tried ChatGPT. It wrote a working VBA program in seconds.
A friend is a sales engineer. He says he spends days putting together customer requirements with technical specs into a coherent proposal for government sales. He said he tried chatgpt and it gave him a complete proposal in seconds. He said he had to proofread it but that was hours instead of days of work. He (the company he works for) won the multi million dollar bid.
It's not human intelligence that will solve all the world's problems. But it is a revolutionary assistant like how the pocket calculator improved productivity compared to adding numbers by hand.
The number one app for companies right now is "we can replace a lot of people and save a ton of money", specifically look at the chatbot assistants you see on websites. Once they get the kinks worked out there, I guarantee they'll have a talking version that will replace call center workers. And that's only the beginning.
They've already run the numbers and figured the upfront costs are worth it. Occasional maintenance/cooling/upgrades/tech support is still going to be cheaper than FICA/Medicare/401K matching/PTO/maternity leave/overtime/workman's comp/running a huge HR department/family day barbecues, etc.
Just trading one type of equipment for another, in their eyes.
Chatbots? Is that it? That's what all the hype is about?
Hardly seems like a multi-billion dollar industry.
It's just the start though. It's going to spread to any and every thing they can think of. When's the last time a corporation said "Naw, that's off limits. We can't in good conscience monetize that."
That's what I'm asking. What else will it "spread" to?
I didn't realize this was an ethical discussion?
It has already spread to image and audio generation and manipulation. It has also spread to automated decision making in financial firms.
Yeah, once again I don't see a financial opportunity there.
You don't see a financial opportunity in delivering tools to dramatically speed up the creation of emails, reports, presentations, boilerplate graphics, etc?
Tell me you've never held a corporate job without telling me you've never held a corporate job.
There are people who literally live in Word and Excel every day. For them these tools could be life changing.
And that's just one obvious userbase.
Ah yes, we've reached the derogatory insult part of the discussion.
That's the part where I bow out. 🖕
Looks like you were in search of an exit and you found it. You're whole argument seemed to consist of "no" which would be responded to with more explanation to support their assertion, which you'd again respond "no" to. How many goes round did you think it would last?
Seriously though, if that was an insult/derogatory, i don't know how long you're gonna last here or anywhere on the Internet, tbh.
Ah yes it's always my favorite thing to be insulted on the internet.
I've lasted about 20 years so far. Mostly by refusing to engage with people who resort to personal insults when they run out of explanations.
More like refusing to engage while repeating the same sentence until people tell you to fuck off, if my experience with you is anything to judge by.
The block dodging and harassment is SUPER mature of you.
Block dodging? Is that your way of saying it's my fault you didn't block me?
Oh there are practical applications if you know where to look. For instance I'm training a trading AI to spot patterns in numbers and indicators that aren't necessarily common knowledge.
I obviously don't.
For what purpose?
The short version: making trading decisions based on technical data.
The long version: there are traders out there that do their operations using statistical formulas called indicators.
There are lots of such indicators out there, and hey, it's pretty easy when they all point one direction, but what happens if they don't? What happens if you only get a few conclusive indicators and the rest are inconclusive? What if you were to combine specific indicators to get a more conclusive answer?
If there is one thing AI is good at, it is exploiting numbers and patterns in service of a very specific and easily measurable goal. Mine is trading profits.
Yeah I don't buy it. People have been trying to create such algorithms for decades. Problem is no algorithm can account for the complexity and completely illogical decisions of humans.
Also, stock prediction can change the thing being predicted. Once a critucal mass of people believe in a certain prediction strategy, then their own actions screw up the prediction. It's not like predicting some natural or external thing.
Oh yeah, this thing will never be able to predict events like GME or that kind of thing.
The thing is though, I don't have to beat the first couple or even the first 50 trades. I just have to beat the babdwagoning masses by detecting upticks and downward trends, something my software can do and act upon faster than any human.
Teach it how to short sticks and it can lose you infinite money.
It’ll be like wallstreetbets AI.
Haha maybe you're right. But it hasn't done me dirty yet, in fact it works pretty solid.
Teach it to short automatically and get back to me.
Oh it can signal shorts already. I'd just need to plug it into a specific trading platform to execute it automatically (right now it just notifies me on its advice; I'm in the manual testing phase)
Pull off the safeguards and let ‘er rip.
YOLO.
A lot of words to say "my imagination is non existent"
It's not a lot of words and that's not what I said 🤷