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…According to estimates from open data, among the 18 defense agreements with the Philippines, only eight are regional countries while the rest are all from outside Southeast Asia, highlighting foreign interference in the South China Sea issue. 

In stark contrast to the previous Duterte administration, which pursued a peaceful settlement of disputes over the South China Sea, the current government has become more and more aggressive in stirring up tensions in the region, partly due to instigations from the US and partly out of political infighting, particularly between the two families of Duterte and Marcos, Chen Hong, executive director of the Asia Pacific Studies Centre at East China Normal University, told the Global Times on Sunday. 

"The intention of the provocations, most recently evident in the collision incident between a Filipino vessel and a Chinese coast guard ship, is to escalate this regional issue into an international one, by coaxing and misleading countries, especially those unaware of the true situation, and getting them to join the Philippine's anti-China camp," Chen said.

However, this scheme is doomed to fail. On Saturday, a Vietnam Foreign Ministry spokesperson voiced Hanoi's deep concern over the recent tensions between China and the Philippines around Ren'ai Reef, calling on self-restraint and the serious implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC).

Vietnam's reaction follows a visit to Manila by Indonesian President Joko Widodo in January with South China Sea issue high on the agenda, which experts said reflected Indonesia's urgency to "talk some sense" into the Philippines to stop its dangerous maneuvers. 

"Most ASEAN countries do not want to complicate things because they are well aware that only with stability in the South China Sea can they maintain a friendly relationship with China, which is crucial for the development of the entire region," Gu Xiaosong, dean of the ASEAN Research Institute of Hainan Tropical Ocean University, told the Global Times on Sunday. 

…Gu warned that among these foreign forces, China should pay special attention to Japan, Australia and India's collusion with Manila, as these countries are the key pawns in the US Indo-Pacific strategy. 

Leaders of Japan and the Philippines have agreed to start negotiations for a key defense pact that would allow their troops to enter each other's territory for joint military exercises. Additional Japanese patrol vessels, defense equipment and radars would be provided to strengthen the Philippines' law enforcement capability at sea, the Associated Press reported in November 2023.  

But even the US' closest allies are keeping an arm's length from South China Sea tensions. 

During a summit Australia hosted with ASEAN in Melbourne last week, while Marcos addressed the Australian Parliament with fiery rhetoric, Canberra and ASEAN seemed unmoved on the matter, calling for restraint from all parties in a collective statement. 

"In fact, even the US, the biggest agitator in the region, does not truly wish to directly confront China in the South China Sea," said Chen Hong. "Manila should be aware that it is merely 'cannon fodder' to serve Washington's hegemonic interests."

In the "ASEAN Perspective on the South China Sea" series, we collect wisdom and insights from former diplomats and scholars from ASEAN countries. Peter Chang (Chang), a research associate of the Institute of China Studies at the University of Malaya, told Global Times (GT) reporter Wang Zixuan that the territorial disputes in the South China Sea are complex, yet they can and should be resolved through diplomatic means.

This is the first piece of the series.

GT: How have extra-regional countries, especially the US, influenced the situation in the South China Sea? Will Washington really help Manila if a conflict breaks out between China and the Philippines?

Chang: Certain extra-regional powers have inserted themselves into the South China Sea dispute, ostensibly in the name of upholding the freedom of navigation. These interventions have undeniably added complexity to the continuing efforts to resolve peacefully the challenges in the South China Sea.

The Biden administration has reaffirmed its commitment to defending the Philippines. The Marcos administration appears convinced that the Americans will come to their assistance in the event of a conflict. However, given the ongoing Gaza crisis and the fluctuating US support for the war in Ukraine, where American attention and resources are stretched thin, it remains uncertain whether the US has the political will to engage in yet another distant conflict on the opposite side of the globe.

GT: You once mentioned in the interview that "we've got to resolve it [the South China Sea issue] diplomatically, that is the only way." However, some scholars think that the Philippines is adopting "microphone diplomacy" on the South China Sea issue. What's your take on this? How should we work together to ensure the situation is under control through diplomacy?

Chang:…Sure, competing for and claiming territory is a source of divisions, but there are also shared goals that bind us together, such as our mutual desire for social-economic growth. It is crucial we set aside our differences and concentrate on nurturing these common aspirations, fostering economic development for the greater good of our peoples.

Without question, open hostilities between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea will have a similarly disastrous impact on countries in Southeast Asia, and beyond. 

GT: …Some have said that the Philippines' current stance on the South China Sea issue goes against the principles and interests of ASEAN. What's your view?

Chang: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations is guided by the principle of ASEAN centrality, which asserts that ASEAN should play a leading role in addressing issues pertaining to the Southeast Asian region.

The present strife between China and the Philippines, exacerbated by US instigation, poses the risk of entangling ASEAN in a proxy war between the US and China. If unchecked, this conflict threatens to undermine ASEAN centrality and relegate ASEAN to a mere pawn on someone else's geopolitical chessboard.

The ongoing confrontation also jeopardizes another core principle - ASEAN neutrality, wherein countries in Southeast Asia aim to maintain open ties with all nations, including both China and the US. The current standoff, with US support for the Philippines against China, has the potential to compel certain ASEAN member states to take sides, to the detriment of the broader well-being of the region.

GT: What lessons should the countries in the South China Sea learn from the wars in the Middle East and Europe? 

Chang: The most important lesson to learn is that we should avoid war at all costs. What's happening with the proxy war in Ukraine, as well as the conflicts in Gaza and in the Red Sea, are devastating. If there's anything we in Asia should be mindful of, it is that these conflicts ought to be resolved peacefully and diplomatically. There must be a way in which we can compromise. 

We should avoid military confrontation at all costs, because it will be a lose-lose situation for everyone if there is an open conflict. If I get the chance, I will tell my Filipino friends that it will be terrible for us to get into the situation that we see right now in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Although the phrasing and statements with regards to Gaza is a bit libby, the larger point still stands.

In more uplifting news…

VIENTIANE/BEIJING (Bernama): China is working with Asean nations for the early conclusion of the Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea, with the second reading of the COC completed and now into third reading.

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi who said this also gave assurance that the South China Sea would remain a "sea of peace and cooperation".

"The most important experience we have drawn is that we must adhere to two principles. First, differences should be properly managed and resolved through dialogues and consultations or negotiations between states directly involved. "Second, peace at the sea should be upheld by China and Asean countries by working together. These are also the core principles in the declaration in the conduct of parties in the South China Sea signed in 2002," Wang told a media conference Thursday.

He noted that China has been exercising a high degree of restraint on maritime disputes. "We maintain that parties should find solutions that are acceptable to each other and to all by working on the spirit of good neighbours and friendship and on the basis of respecting historical and legal facts. But abuse in such good faith will not be allowed," he said. He also urged "certain countries" outside the region not to make provocations, take sides or stir up troubles and problems in the South China Sea.