this post was submitted on 19 Mar 2024
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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world. About 1C of total warming. Second chart: about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability. Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases. About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

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Climate models can’t explain 2023’s huge heat anomaly — we could be in uncharted territory | With all known factors, the planet warmed 0.2 °C more last year than climate scientists expected (www.nature.com)
submitted 9 months ago by silence7@slrpnk.net to c/climate@slrpnk.net
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[–] Hotzilla@sopuli.xyz 6 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (2 children)

Wasn't there a YouTube video few months ago were one climate scientist talked that they removed few models from the accepted list of climate models because those models started showing rapid heating. And the reason for their removal was that they predicted too fast heating, that has never happened. And these models were accurate in the past.

Edit: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4S9sDyooxf4&t=668s&pp=ygUWcmVtb3ZlZCBjbGltYXRlIG1vZGVscw%3D%3D

[–] hanrahan@slrpnk.net 9 points 9 months ago

That's sort of misleading though. They say they discarded the hot model runs becase paleoclimatology research tended to suggest suggest that couldn't happen. Hausfather etal. Andrew Dressler was involved and had a response on Mastodon

However :) people like Professor Janson Box etal suggested it will happen way faster then most models predict.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTdJRy1uqsc

The precautionary principal (because we have no planet B) should have us doing everything we can to get in front of this. Worst case scenario, rich asshole high emitters have to live like ordldinary folk more quickly. We can keep ignoring it until we collapse civilization like John Schellenhuber etal suggest, which does seem to be the option we've chosen.

I don't think it matters either way, we ignore it because it's inconvenient not becase we dont have the tech. We have long known how to ride a bicycle and stop flying for example... we just keep emitting, emissions increased again last year.

[–] silence7@slrpnk.net 2 points 9 months ago

The last big community run of models had a bunch of them use a new cloud model, which forecast much more heating in the future because they stopped having clouds form at some latitudes.

That hasn't happened, and isn't what's responsible for the temperature jump in 2023.