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Prepare for Putin pivot to invade us, say Baltic states
(www.telegraph.co.uk)
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this post was submitted on 31 Mar 2024
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Russia still has a lot of men and has already transitioned into a war-time economy. All Europe has done is have Baltics and Poland (and probably also Finland) go through potential invasion strategies, the rest of Europe doesn't even believe in the possibility of war. The only way circumstances could be better is if Trump gets elected because that old fuck will make sure to hamper US support. Other than that if you're going to invade you couldn't want better conditions.
I'm not saying it will happen. I'm going to say the invasion would the stupid and hardly beneficial for Russia and the logical thing would be to not invade. But I will add that I said the exact same thing about the invasion of Ukraine and we know how that went. I wouldn't put it beyond the realm of possibilities.
The main difference here though is the consideration of NATO. If you attack Ukraine you're attacking one country, if you attack NATO you're attacking many, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, who have some of the largest military's forces on the planet and access to nuclear weapons. Russia had reason to believe it might have actually win against Ukraine, there's no possible way they can think that they could win against NATO.
He's counting on NATO continuing to take the "let's just sanction him" approach. He's essentially hoping they're bluffing while he tries to get the gang back together. (USSR)
They won't do that if he's actually invading though. NATO's point is they won't ever escalate a situation. That whole point is to try and prevent something like world war II happening again. So declining war on Russia while he's attacking a non-nato country would be an escalation. But they're all about responding in kind to an attack against them.
The idea in the previous comment is that Putin thinks NATO is bluffing about doing that, about responding in kind.