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A defeat of Ukraine would be a humbling episode for the West, a modern Suez moment.
(www.economist.com)
this post was submitted on 16 Apr 2024
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Flipping through my history book on Egypt and looking at the chapters after 1956. Gotta say, I hope it ends better than this.
The Suez Crisis signaled the decline of British/French hegemony, but it ushered in a new era of American hegemony. I would not call it a "humbling episode for the West" nearly so much as a changing of the guard.
I genuinely dread what arises from the wrecked state of Ukraine in subsequent decades. A rapidly rearmed Western Europe would not be what I would describe as a move towards the "Good Timeline", particularly given how modern German Greens and their AfD rivals echo the sentiments of a certain prior national socialist political movement.
The difference being there is no western capitalist order to take control after the Ukraine crisis. All emerging powers are in the East. Even if Europe rearms it would only be to strengthen the USD. Unless you’re gonna start dropping nukes on Russia and China there’s really not a whole lot the west can do. We have no emerging powers.
They can try, the Euros aren't fighting depopulated continents, feudal statelets, or divided colonial subjects anymore, the rest of the world has more numbers and way more firepower
Also they're ruled by state-hating ordoliberals who have heart attacks at just the idea of expanding state capacity
Fair, it was more humbling for Europe than the west overall, but this time the rising power is China with BRICS around it, so I'm pretty optimistic. Personally, I don't see how western Europe can rapidly rearm either given how deindustrialized it is and with energy prices in Europe being what they are.