this post was submitted on 04 Jun 2024
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[–] Nurse_Robot@lemmy.world 17 points 5 months ago (2 children)

I paid attention to the polls in 2016 and thought Trump didn't stand a chance, so I voted 3rd party like I always do. I was wrong. I no longer pay attention to polls.

[–] frezik@midwest.social 3 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (1 children)

I paid attention to polls, as well. They swung wildly around as the news cycle shifted between bad news for Trump and bad news for Hillary. Then, Comey's letter drops at the perfect time (deliberate or not) to bring Hillary's numbers just low enough to give Trump an edge in key states. That happened too late for any new polls to absorb the info before the election.

When Fivethirtyeight.com was giving around 75% chance for a Hillary victory, that doesn't mean her victory was assured. It means Trump needed to flip two coins and have them both come up heads.

Polls aren't useless. They are a statistical tool. People applied them badly.

[–] Jumpingspiderman@lemmy.world 2 points 5 months ago

Comey's stunt was deliberate AF. And it was an unforgivable crime that likely leads to the US becoming a dictatorship. If I were in Comey's presence, I'd spit in his face for what he did.

[–] Rapidcreek@lemmy.world -3 points 5 months ago

Well good for you, but this poll isn't about the general. It is no different than opinion surveys taken every day. It has nothing to do with the electoral college.