this post was submitted on 10 Jun 2024
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Is that why Gazprom posted its first annual loss in 20 years? a loss of $6.9 billion. Because revenues have grown so much?
Huge growth!
Since many of the sanctions also apply to things that are expected to fail over time, like electronics and industrial equipment, I'm sure the losses will continue to rise. Something to look forward to.
Exactly. These sanctions take some time to be felt. Russia is also very selective in what economic numbers it publishes. They are also artificially keeping up the exchange rate of the ruble.
These are all things that you can only keep doing for so long and it makes the crash afterwards even worse. Basically: they can pretend everything is all-right in the short term, but they have to screw themselves over in the long term to do so.
Is that a falsifiable prediction?
When is it gonna hit? If it goes beyond that period, are you gonna revise your model or insist you were only off by a year, and surely it will collapse next year?
I have zero faith in Russia, but every time someone's told me is about to collapse or overthrow the government because of sanctions, and all evidence to the contrary is fabricated, they've been wrong. There's journalists and economists who've spent 30+ years saying that about China, Cuba, and Iran, who still somehow have jobs.
They will continue to rise in the areas less important for war effort. Which means that the balance of power in Russia will keep getting worse.
Must also be why Russia's proposed pipeline to china (to offset the sales they are no longer making to Europe) has ground to a halt because China have them over a barrel when it comes to price.
That would be good news, but I've been kinda saturated with such since 2022.
....What?
That's impolite. I'm almost certain you yourself don't speak any language other than English, like some boor.
If you really want to know "what", then I meant that when every day every weak for a few months you hear how Russian economy is going to crumble after a few months of Ukrainian resistance, even from some professors, and it just doesn't, and it still hasn't, - you stop believing that.